- Crude Oil bids weaker heading into the midweek.
- OPEC production cuts run aground of meager China demand.
- API supply measure due later Tuesday, EIA barrel counts Wednesday.
Crude Oil markets waffled on Tuesday, dragging West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil further down the charts to test below $78.00 per barrel as a long-awaited uptick in Chinese Crude Oil demand fails to materialize.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently announced a broadly-anticipated extension to first-quarter production caps that were meant to bolster global prices of Crude Oil. Despite OPEC continuing to crimp output of its member states, production from non-OPEC nations, notably the US, continues to climb, and far-off expectations of possible refining curtailing have yet to materialize.
An unseasonally warm winter saw heating oil demand draw down supplies far less than expected as the northern hemisphere exits the cold months, and energy markets have begun to show signs of fatigue waiting for an uptick in Chinese Crude Oil demand that has yet to materialize. China has targeted growth of 5% in 2024, and while Chinese central planners are likely to hit their own targets, the comparatively sedate growth figure leaves little room for a supply-eating expansion in China’s Crude Oil demand.
Ongoing chatter of a possible ceasefire in the Gaza conflict is also weighing on Crude Oil bids. Houthi rebels attacking civilian cargo ships in the Red Sea is also seeing an increasingly limited market impact, as most shipping lanes have rerouted away from crossing the Suez Canal.
WTI technical outlook
WTI extended a decline from last week’s peak at 80.33, declining through near-term congestion at the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $77.98. US Crude Oil is finding near-term technical support at the $77.50 level, and barrel bids are testing on the low side of $78.00 per barrel.
Tuesday’s WTI decline sees US Crude Oil prices testing back into the 200-day SMA at $77.80, and WTI is slumping back into rough technical consolidation. Crude Oil is struggling to extend bullish momentum after a recovery from the last swing low into $71.50.
WTI hourly chart
WTI daily chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.