Crude Oil continues thin recovery, WTI struggles to reclaim $74

Crude Oil prices grind higher in thin markets.
Price recovery hobbled by another supplies buildup.
Geopolitical risks remain key driver for bullish price momentum.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil is taking halting steps higher on Wednesday, trying to stake ground above $74.00 per barrel as another buildup in US barrel stocks keeps prices pinned on the low end.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned this week that the US could see a significant slowdown in its pace of Crude Oil production growth after hitting record pumping numbers in 2023.

According to the EIA, the US is set to see overall Crude Oil production to expand by an average of 160K barrels per day through 2024 after last year’s record 1.02 million barrel per day production expansion. US Crude Oil is seen rising to 13.21 million bpd through 2024 and then climbing to 13.49 million bpd in 2025.

The EUA reported that US Crude Oil inventories climbed by 5.521 million barrels for the week ended February 2, well above the forecast 1.895 million barrel buildup. Crude Oil stocks climbed an additional 1.234 million barrels the previous week.

Geopolitical risks remain a key support for Crude Oil prices as ceasefire talks between Israel and Palestinian Hamas continue despite frictions, and coalition naval forces continue to squeeze Iranian-backed Houthi rebels out of the Red Sea.

The Yemeni rebel group remains determined to continue attacking civilian cargo ships transiting the Red Sea in a major shipping lane that connects Asia and Europe by way of the Suez Canal. Houthis fired on two civilian ships this week, keeping tensions in the Middle East tightened.

WTI technical outlook

WTI US Crude Oil is struggling to reclaim the $74.00 handle on Wednesday, but remains bolstered into the high side as barrel bids continue to recover after a near-term plunge into $71.50 last week. Price action remains constrained on the south side of the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $75.00 handle.

WTI remains down after a near-term rejection from the 200-day SMA just below the $78.00 handle, and US Crude Oil continues to trade into the middle of a medium-term congestion range that has hampered price momentum since declining below the 200-day SMA in November.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price	73.86
Today Daily Change	0.34
Today Daily Change %	0.46
Today daily open	73.52

Trends
Daily SMA20	74.2
Daily SMA50	73.25
Daily SMA100	77.98
Daily SMA200	77.23

Levels
Previous Daily High	73.86
Previous Daily Low	72.45
Previous Weekly High	79.19
Previous Weekly Low	71.83
Previous Monthly High	79.19
Previous Monthly Low	69.41
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	73.32
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	72.99
Daily Pivot Point S1	72.69
Daily Pivot Point S2	71.86
Daily Pivot Point S3	71.28
Daily Pivot Point R1	74.1
Daily Pivot Point R2	74.69
Daily Pivot Point R3	75.51

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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