Copper to break above its record high and test $10,500 in the current supercycle – OCBC


Strategists at OCBC Bank think that copper could break new record highs in the current super-cycle. Exceptional end-demand from China, the global green wave and decade-low exchange stocks are prime for copper to break out. Copper is expected to test $10,500/mt in the next 12-months, while the 3-12m time spread on LME could test the 2011 high of $200/mt.

Key quotes

“We are most bullish on copper in this commodity cycle. Not only is copper a proxy for bullish Chinese industrial activity, the demand for EV adoption and electrical grid upgrade infrastructure would be major supportive factors for the base metal.” 

“We expect copper to set a new high in the current super-cycle of $10,500/mt in the next twelve months on the back of an expected record deficit in the refined market.”

“We see the 3-12m time spread on LME testing the 2011 high of $200/mt from the current $138. The cash 3m time spread could potentially rise above $100/mt by Q4 2021 from the current $37.25/mt.”

 

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