Analysts at Standard Chartered note that China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved significantly in November, to 50.2 and 54.4, respectively, from 49.3 and 52.8 in October.
Key Quotes
“The sub-indices suggest an improvement in industrial production (IP), export and import demand on a sequential basis. Wholesale prices of industrial goods, however, have eased further m/m.”
“We do not think a single-month improvement in PMIs (especially following the significant slide in October) will change the policy direction. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to maintain a pro-growth stance in coming months.”
“We expect export growth to have picked up to 0.4% y/y in November from -0.9% y/y in October. Imports likely rose 0.6% y/y (versus a 6.4% y/y decline in October) on higher crude oil prices and the resumption of soybean imports from the US. The trade surplus is expected to narrow to USD 41.6bn in November from USD 43bn prior due to better import performance.”
“Base effects and elevated pork prices may have pushed up CPI inflation to 4.2% y/y in November from 3.8% y/y in October, while PPI deflation likely accelerated to 1.7% y/y from 1.6%. The purchasing price sub-index returned to contractionary territory in November (49 versus 50.4 in October).”
“We expect IP growth to have edged up to 5.6% y/y in November as work resumed after the week-long National Day holidays in October. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth likely inched lower to 5.1% y/y YTD in November, given lingering US-China trade uncertainty. We expect retail sales growth to have rebounded to 7.8% y/y in November on higher inflation and Singles’ Day sales promotions.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds below 1.0750 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below 1.0750 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after surging above this level on the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold clings to modest daily gains at around $2,350
Gold stays in positive territory at around $2,350 after closing in positive territory on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges lower ahead of US PCE Price Index data, allowing XAU/USD to stretch higher.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.