China growth to fall behind rest of Asia for first time since 1990 – FT

“China’s economic output will lag behind the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990, according to new World Bank forecasts that highlight the damage wrought by Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policies and the meltdown of the world’s biggest property market,” said the Financial Times (FT).

“The World Bank has revised down its forecast for gross domestic product growth in the planet’s second-largest economy to 2.8 per cent compared with 8.1 per cent last year, and down from its prediction made in April of between 4 and 5%,” per the FT news that rolled out on early Tuesday.

Key quotes

At the same time, expectations for the rest of east Asia and the Pacific have improved. The region, excluding China, is expected to grow at 5.3 per cent in 2022, up from 2.6 per cent last year, thanks to high commodity prices and a rebound in domestic consumption after the pandemic.

The Washington-based group’s latest forecast follows a series of financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Nomura, slashing their outlook for next year, too. The rise in pessimism is based on assessments that Xi would probably pursue his zero-Covid policy beyond 2022.

By contrast, economies in east Asia and the Pacific, particularly the export-driven economies of south-east Asia, are mostly expected to grow faster and have lower inflation in 2022.

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