China: Back in business – NAB

It may be some time before China returns to normal activity levels given the likely slower recovery in confidence and the weaker global economic environment due to the virus spread, Gerard Burg from the National Australia Bank reports.

Key quotes

“We expect an unprecedented decline in China’s GDP in Q1, down by 12% yoy.” 

“We expect the rebound in China’s economy will be spread across Q2 and Q3. For the full year, we now forecast no growth.”

“Due to the weakness in early 2020 (particularly in Q1), the resumption of normal activity in China will result in a rapid acceleration in annual growth in 2021, now revised up to 10.9%.”