Economists at Citigroup expect the Swiss Franc (CHF) to weaken as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have ended its tightening cycle.
CHF biased toward an extended period of underperformance
The SNB’s pause at its September meeting at a 1.75% terminal rate likely signals an end to its tightening cycle which leaves CHF biased towards an extended period of underperformance given the significantly lower yield on CHF compared to almost all its G10 peers (ex JPY).
However, in ending its rate hike cycle, the SNB has indicated its willingness to strengthen CHF should Swiss inflation once again rise above its 2% target. But with Switzerland having an export-to-GDP ratio of 75% and much more geared towards export performance than its peers, the SNB is likely to be more careful this time about supporting a stronger CHF especially as its growth outlook weakens significantly.
CHF is expected to weaken against most of its G10 peers in the medium-term as investors use the currency as a low-cost funding vehicle to buy risk assets and FX.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.