Canadian Jobs Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, labour market to keep pressuring the BoC

Statistics Canada will publish the Canadian November labour market data at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers at five major banks regarding the upcoming employment data. The Unemployment Rate in Canada is expected to remain drop to 6.6% from 6.7% at 6.9% with the Net Change in Employment coming in at 35K.

TDS

“We look for another modest (30K) performance, pulling the UE rate lower to 6.6%, but expect a more substantial pickup in wage growth.”

RBC Economics

“We expect a 40K increase in Canadian employment in October, lowering the unemployment rate to 6.6%. The improvement was likely supported by the ongoing recovery of close-contact service sector industries, where employment is still weaker than pre-pandemic but demand continues to resume.”

NBF

“Hiring should have continued at a strong pace in the month, as the epidemiological situation allowed the economic re-opening to continue. Our call is for a 30K increase in employment, a gain that would keep the unemployment rate unchanged, assuming the participation rate gained a tick at 65.4%.”

CIBC

“We are only penciling in an addition of 10K jobs for the month, which would likely see the unemployment rate rise at least a tick to 6.8%.”

Citibank

“Canada Net Change in Employment – Citi: 85K, median: 40K, prior: 31.2K; Unemployment Rate – Citi: 6.4%, median: 6.6%, prior: 6.7%; Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees – Citi: 3.0%, median: NA, prior: 2.1% – We expect a return of stronger job growth in Canada though with downside risks if anecdotes of labor shortages materialize. In particular, a pick-up in wage growth, likely over the next 4-5 months of data, would be a convincing sign of a tighter labor market that supports a hike by the BoC in April.”