CAD fails to benefit from the mostly softer USD – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) picked up a little ground in overnight trade on the news out of Washington DC but is currently trading close to the overnight low seen earlier against the big dollar and near yesterday’s session low, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

USD/CAD resistance develops around 1.3960

"The soft risk mood around the US government shutdown may be a drag on CAD sentiment although broader factors driving the CAD have shifted marginally more positively for the currency over the past few days. Our fair value estimate for funds has dropped back to 1.3695 this morning, driving the deviation from equilibrium back close to recent extremes (nearly 2 standard deviations)."

"That should firm up the ceiling for the USD around the 1.40 point in the short run at least, all else equal. Spot price action may have set a short -term top/reversal signal around the turn of the week, with net losses for the USD Monday (after Friday’s drop back from the intraday high) forming the third leg of a potential 'morning star' pattern."

"The lack of downside follow-through selling and the renewed bid for the USD today calls that pattern into question to some extent. It should, however mean firm USD resistance develops around 1.3960. Spot still needs to push below 1.3880 at least to reflect any real chance of a technical pick up in the CAD."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.