BoC Preview: 7 Major Banks expectations from April meeting

Today, we have an all-important BoC meeting for the month of April, and as we get close to the decision timings, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 7 major banks for today’s meet.

Most of the researchers and economists are forecasting that the BoC is likely to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% while shifting to the neutral bias.

Rabobank

“We expect the BoC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. This is unanimously expected by the 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and CAD OIS implies almost no chance of either a hike or a cut at this meeting and only around a 20% chance of a 25bp cut by the end of the year.”

“Although a more cautious tone was adopted at the last meeting, the door was left open for rate hikes. Rather than being dovish, we argue that the Bank has adopted a holding stance.”

“We maintain the view that the BoC will not be able to raise rates again this cycle and instead we see the Bank cutting rates in 2020 Q2.”

“This meeting will be accompanied by a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR) which we expect to reveal downward revisions to growth forecasts.”

TD Securities

“TD looks for the Bank of Canada to leave rates unchanged at 1.75%, in line with all private sector forecasts, leaving the focus on updated economic projections and tweaks to the policy statement.”

“For the former, we expect the Bank to formally drop its bias towards higher rates by noting that future moves (not hikes) will be subject to increased uncertainty while updated forecasts should see near-term growth downgraded.”

Danske Bank

“Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged at today's monetary policy meeting. Consequently focus will be on the central bank's new monetary policy report, rhetoric and not least any signals on the possibility of rate cuts amid markets now pricing roughly a 2/3 probability of a rate cut over the coming 12M.”

“We don't think BoC will deliver much to the doves today. Given the rise in oil prices, the positive inflation surprises and recent strong labour market reports we think BoC will re-iterate its 'on hold' and data dependency stance, and even maintain its modest tightening bias.”

ING

“The Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to stick to its dovish message at its April policy meeting and keep rates on hold at 1.75%.”

“The downbeat outlook for both the domestic and global economy, as well as some slightly lower inflation figures, may even push policymakers towards a more cautious attitude when it comes to further rate hikes.”

Royal Bank of Canada

“While no one expects a change in interest rates, hopes are Wednesday’s policy statement and Monetary Policy Report will provide clues into just how long the central bank might remain on the sidelines. A run of soft economic data—including this week’s Business Outlook Survey—have given Governor Poloz and Co. plenty of cover to take a more dovish stance.”

“We expect the BoC will make its shift to a neutral policy bias official by dropping any reference to future rate hikes. And to end the policy statement by again emphasizing its dependence on data, with a particular focus on oil markets, household spending, and global trade policy.”

National Bank of Canada

National Bank Financial’s analysis team suggests that in Canada, the central bank will take center stage this week as in addition to Wednesday’s interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada will also release its Monetary Policy Report showing its latest economic projections.

“Nobody should be surprised if the BoC’s 2019 GDP growth forecast for Canada is downgraded a tick or two from last January’s estimate of 1.7%, courtesy of a weaker-than-expected handoff from last year i.e. 2018Q4.”

“The Bank’s updated estimates of potential GDP will also be important given their implications for the estimation of the output gap. How dovish will the central bank be in its statement? Probably not too much, especially if it wants markets to reconsider any remaining expectations of rate cuts this year. While data hasn’t been stellar lately, there is reason to believe a rebound is in the works after the 2018Q4-2019Q1 slowdown, especially considering the rise of oil production and prices since then.”

“As such, we expect the central bank to remain in pause mode and reiterate the need to maintain the overnight rate below its neutral range.”

National Australia Bank

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the Bank of Canada (BOC) April monetary policy decision due to be announced later today at 1400 GMT.

“Rates very likely on hold.”

“Focus therefore will turn to the outlook with weakness in the household sector under close watch.”

“Markets price around a 10% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year.”