BOC: Inflation expectations at record highs for 1-year and 2-years from now

The Bank of Canada's (BOC) Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumers for the second quarter showed inflation expectations climbed to record highs for 1-year and 2-years from now, with low-income consumers most concerned, per Reuters.

Key takeaways

"Survey shows concern over near-term inflation has increased and inflation is expected to run higher for longer than the previous survey."

"Many businesses plan to raise wages to hire and retain workers; they expect an average wage increase of 5.8% over the next 12 months."

"Most businesses anticipate inflation will exceed 3% on average for the next two years, with a quarter of businesses expecting inflation above 2% for three years or more."

"Businesses reporting record-high number of labor and supply-chain constraints, with about half of firms expecting supply chain challenges to persist until the end of 2023 or beyond."

"Survey indicates many firms to increase investment and hiring over the next year, and many expect significant wage and price increases."

"Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates amid greater uncertainty."

"Inflation expectations have risen alongside concerns about food, gas and rent costs."

"Canadians plan to spend significantly more over the next 12 months, with about a quarter planning on spending some excess savings."

"Expectations for 1-year ahead inflation increased in Q2 to 6.8% from 2.2%."

Market reaction

The USD/CAD pair edged lower from session highs after this report and was last seen posting small daily losses at 1.2875.