Beware of rate cut speculation for Norges Bank – Commerzbank

The last important data are due today before next week's Norges Bank meeting: Inflation figures for August, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

Norges Bank is unlikely to bring forward first rate cuts

“The underlying trend, especially for core inflation, is still quite high. The annual rates were 2.8% for the headline rate in July and 3.3% for the core rate, i.e. well above the target of 2%. This is unlikely to have changed much in August.”

“At its meeting in August, Norges Bank noted that inflation had slowed considerably. However, inflation is still above target, and some factors could contribute to keeping inflation elevated ahead. For Norges Bank, one of these factors is the depreciation of the krone. After all, the weak krone implies inflation risks, but cannot be definitively explained even by Norges Bank.”

“The market sees the possibility that Norges Bank, contrary to its projections, could lower the policy rate before the end of the year. These expectations could gain momentum if the inflation figures surprise to the downside today. However, I would be cautious about jumping on this bandwagon. Because as long as the NOK is trading weakly and is repeatedly coming under downward pressure, Norges Bank is unlikely to bring forward first rate cuts.”