The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release Q1 GDP data on 3 June at 01:30 GMT. Here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of four major banks. Most of the economists and researchers are expecting Australian GDP Q1 in between -0.7% and +0.1% while the market consensus is a -0.3% reading.
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Westpac
“We expect output to contract by 0.7% in Q1, the first decline in nine years, since Q1 2011. That is ahead of a much sharper fall in Q2, in the order of 8.5%, the first back-to-back falls since the first half of 1991. Annual growth slows from 2.2% to 1.0% in Q1 and then drops to around -8% in Q2. The arithmetic of our Q1 forecast is: domestic demand, -0.2%; inventories, -0.7ppts, statistical discrepancy, -0.3ppts; and net exports, +0.5ppts. Demand is expected to contract across the private sector (consumer, housing, and business), while public demand advances.”
Standard Chartered
“The economy likely expanded by a soft 1.7% y/y, following the 2.2% expansion in Q4; in q/q terms, we expect growth to have risen by a modest 0.1% q/q. Household consumption growth was likely strong in Q1, aided by front-loaded purchases of food and groceries in March ahead of the lockdown. We expect private investment to have declined further in Q1 on softer construction sentiment, as indicated by the soft building and structure capex data.”
ANZ
“Our analysis suggests that Q1 GDP fell 0.1% q/q. Consumption is likely to have been weak, housing construction fell, and business investment also looks to have fallen. While the sharp drop-off in imports (both goods and services) means net exports will make a large positive contribution, and public spending is likely to be strong, we don’t think they will be quite enough to keep growth in negative territory.”
TDS
“We expect GDP to contract 0.5% in Q1. This will be the first decline since Q1 2011 taking annual growth drop from 2.2% to 1.3% in Q1. In terms of breakdown, we expect domestic demand to fall 0.2%, inventories to drop -0.4%, net exports to add +0.5% while statistical discrepancy chops -0.2%.”
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