In view of analysts at Deutsche Bank, the key events over the week ahead for Australia will be the RBA's monthly board meeting and also the release of the August Statement on Monetary Policy.

Key Quotes

“We expect no change in the cash rate at the meeting, and any evolution in the post-meeting statement to be minimal - especially given the response by the market and the subsequent 'interpretive guidance' from the RBA following the release of the June minutes. That said, we would expect the Bank to note that the CPI was largely in line with the staff forecasts, and perhaps repeat the sentiment from the minutes that the recent strength in employment has mitigated some of the downside risk to the outlook for wages growth.”

“The recent strength in the AUD might also see a tweaking in the Bank's commentary. For the past year or so the Bank has noted that: "The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment." Consistent with the comments from the Governor on 26 July the phrasing might change to 'a lower Australian dollar would assist the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom'.”

“Turning to the Statement on Monetary Policy we see no reason for the RBA to change the forecasts contained in the May Statement. Specifically on growth we would expect a 3% forecast for December 2017 then a 2¾ to 3¾ range to June 2019. On the unemployment rate we think a 5¾% estimate for December 2017 and a 5-6% range through to June 2019. On core inflation a 2% point estimate for December 2017 and a 1½ to 2½% range to December 2018 and 2-3% for June 2019 seems likely. For December 2019 we would not rule out a 3-4% GDP growth number, a 4¾ to 5¾% unemployment rate estimate and a 2-3% core and headline inflation forecast.”

“On the data front the week sees building approvals data for June (we expect no change from May - I.e. 0.0% mom); the June trade balance (where lower commodity prices should see a smaller trade surplus in the order of $1.4bn); and retail trade for June (here we look for a flat outturn after two strong results for the month, while we expect retail volume grew 1.3% in the quarter with the deflator flat).”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD slumps toward 1.0150 after US NFP data

EUR/USD slumps toward 1.0150 after US NFP data

EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and dropped toward 1.0150 in the American session on Friday. The data from the US showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 528K in July, compared to the market expectation of 250K, and provided a boost to the greenback.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends slide toward 1.2000 amid DXY rally

GBP/USD extends slide toward 1.2000 amid DXY rally

GBP/USD declined sharply toward 1.2000 on Friday after the impressive US July jobs report triggered a dollar rally. Nonfarm Payrolls grew at a much stronger pace than expected and annual wage inflation stayed unchanged at 5.2%, reviving hawkish Fed bets.

GBP/USD News

Gold plunges toward $1,770 amid surging yields

Gold plunges toward $1,770 amid surging yields

Gold turned south in the second half of the day on Friday and fell toward $1,770. After the US data showed Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 528,000 in July, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield gained more than 6%, weighing heavily on XAU/USD.

Gold News

Cardano price fractal strikes again per our prediction, here’s what’s next for ADA

Cardano price fractal strikes again per our prediction, here’s what’s next for ADA

Cardano price is ready to rally after triggering the same pattern for the fourth time in the last two months. This development could provide buyers and traders with a quick and easy setup to capitalize on.

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!

BECOME PREMIUM

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures