Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, suggests that AUD seems to have quite a few factors in its favour.
“RBA minutes this week left the door open to lower rates “if the accumulation of additional evidence” supported further easing. This makes a 3 Sep cut even less likely, with pricing down to 10% and a move by Oct (our base case) 60%.”
“Moreover, substantial short A$ spec positioning implies considerable bad news on US-China trade relations is already in the price.”
“Fed chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole should set the path for AUD/USD early in the week. The dovish tone that would be consistent with our Fed call (-75bp by end-2019) could help AUD/USD re-test recent highs around 0.6820. But overall the s/t view vs US$ is neutral, while trying longs on crosses e.g. NZD, EUR and GBP.”
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