AUD/USD Price Forecast: Advancing 20-day EMA backs more upside

AUD/USD jumps to near 0.7065 as the Australian Dollar outperforms its peers.
Australian Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.1% in January.
Investors await the flash US Q4 GDP data.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair trades 0.27% higher to near 0.7065 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms, following the release of the labor market data for January.

Earlier in the day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1%, while it was expected to rise to 4.2%. Fresh workers hired by Australian employers were 17.8K, lower than estimates of 20K and the previous reading of 68.5K.

Signs of stable job market conditions have reaffirmed hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations. According to a report from Reuters, traders have fully priced in a hike in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% by the August meeting.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly stable ahead of the release of the United States (US) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The US economy is estimated to have expanded at an annualized pace of 3%, slower than the previous reading of 4.4%.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.7060 during the press time. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher at 0.7002, keeping the short-term bias upward. Price action holds above this gauge, and a sustained close above the February 12 high at 0.7147 would extend the advance towards the round-figure of 0.7200.

Immediate support sits at the 20-EMA at 0.7002; as long as that floor contains dips, the pair could extend the recovery path.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 (bullish) supports ongoing momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

(This story was corrected on February 19 at 11:04 GMT to say in the second bullet point that the Australian Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.1%, not 4.2%)

Economic Indicator

Unemployment Rate s.a.

The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1800, looks at US data

EUR/USD is still trading on the defensive in the latter part of Thursday’s session, while the US Dollar maintains its bid bias as investors now gear up for Friday’s key release of the PCE data, advanced Q4 GDP prints and flash PMIs.

GBP/USD seems vulnerable near one-month low vs. USD as traders await US data

The GBP/USD pair prolongs its weekly downtrend for the fifth consecutive day on Friday and slides back closer to a nearly one-month low, touched the previous day. Spot prices trade below mid-1.3400s during the Asian session on Friday and seem vulnerable to slide further as traders now look to important US macro data for a fresh impetus.

Gold eyes next breakout on US GDP, PCE inflation data

Gold sticks to recent gains around the $5,000-mark early Friday, biding time before the high-impact US macro events. The focus is now on the US fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product, core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

CME Group to make crypto products available for 24/7 trading in May

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group has announced plans to extend trading hours for its regulated cryptocurrency futures and options to 24/7, starting May 29, pending regulatory approval.

Hawkish Fed minutes and a market finding its footing

It was green across the board for US Stock market indexes at the close on Wednesday, with most S&P 500 names ending higher, adding 38 points (0.6%) to 6,881 overall. At the GICS sector level, energy led gains, followed by technology and consumer discretionary, while utilities and real estate posted the largest losses.

Injective token surges over 13% following the approval of the mainnet upgrade proposal

Injective price rallies over 13% on Thursday after the network confirmed the approval of its IIP-619 proposal. The green light for the mainnet upgrade has boosted traders’ sentiment, as the upgrade aims to scale Injective’s real-time Ethereum Virtual Machine architecture and enhance its capabilities to support next-generation payments.