AUD/USD Price Analysis: Retreats from multi-month tops, still comfortable above 200-DMA

AUD/USD gained some strong follow-through traction and rallied to over four-month tops on Monday.
Slightly overbought conditions on hourly charts prompted traders to take some profits off the table.
The near-term bias still seems tilted in favour of bulls as the focus shifts to RBA decision on Tuesday.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone through the mid-European session, albeit has retreated around 45-50 pips from over four-month tops set earlier this Monday. The intraday positive momentum struggled to find acceptance above a resistance marked by the top end of over one-month-old ascending trend-channel.

However, the fact that the pair has broken through the very important 200-day SMA, the near-term set-up still seems tilted in favour of bullish traders. However, slightly overbought conditions on hourly charts seemed to be the only factor prompting some profit-taking ahead of the latest RBA monetary policy update on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have also moved on the verge of breaking into the overbought territory and warrant some caution before placing any fresh bullish bets. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before again positioning for the next leg up.

That said, any downfall towards the 0.6700 round-figure mark might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh bullish positions. This, in turn, should help limit the downside near the 200-DMA resistance breakpoint, around the 0.6680-75 region, amid the continuous selling bias surrounding the greenback.

On the upside, some follow-through buying beyond the trend-channel resistance, leading to a subsequent move beyond the daily swing high near the 0.6770 region, will reinforce the bullish outlook. The pair might then accelerate the move towards the 0.6800 round-figure mark en-route the next major hurdle near the 0.6835-40 region.

AUD/USD daily chart

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6726
Today Daily Change	0.0061
Today Daily Change %	0.92
Today daily open	0.6665

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6523
Daily SMA50	0.636
Daily SMA100	0.6482
Daily SMA200	0.6658

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6683
Previous Daily Low	0.6612
Previous Weekly High	0.6683
Previous Weekly Low	0.6519
Previous Monthly High	0.6683
Previous Monthly Low	0.6372
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6656
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6639
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6624
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6582
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6552
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6695
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6725
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6766

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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