AUD/USD Price Analysis: Fresh lows, channel support tested, Golden Ratio in focus

Bears taking out the H&S neckline, target channel support/uptrend at 0.6829.
Failures of the channel opens risk to 61.8% Fibo and then 0.6755 November low.
Bulls need the golden ratio to hold or its probably game over to the 0.66 handle.
Risk-off mood in Asia not helping bull's case ahead of key data releases and expected rate cut from a dovish RBA.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

AUD/USD daily chart

It was not a good day for the Aussie bulls overnight and commitments were lost at the H&S neckline. Subsequently, the price closed on a daily closing basis below the neckline and marked a fresh closing low for the year down at 0.68427.

In Asia, the pair has slipped further to a low of 0.6832 as bears milk the bearish environment on both a fundamental and technical basis ahead of the jobs data tomorrow, Consumer Price Index at the end of the month and the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on the 4th Feb.

As the attached chart shows, the price is headed for a test of the channel support. On a weekly basis, 0.6937 was the June 2019 level, so this should reinforce the channel. However, below there, bears can target the golden ratio as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target which will be expected to hold the initial tests. A subsequent break there will be game over the committed bulls and 0.66 will be on the cards. First support may come in at the 0.6755 November low ahead of the target the 0.6671 October low

However, should there be a firm hand from the bulls at either the channel support or 61.8%, a structural bullish case could be made for a restest of the channel and prior support of the H&S neckline and 0.6880 prior resistance. On a subsequent break, bulls will be back in the picture for a more balanced bias and the upside of the channel will be back in vogue.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.