AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls have the upper hand near 0.6430-35 area, over three-week high

AUD/USD gains traction for the second straight day and climbs to over a three-week top.
The post-FOMC USD selling bias turns out to be a key factor behind the ongoing move up.
A move beyond the 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibo. supports prospects for further gains.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair builds on the previous day's strong move up and gains some follow-through positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday. The momentum is fueled by the post-FOMC US Dollar (USD) weakness and lifts spot prices to the 0.6435 area or a three-week top during the Asian session.

Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the door open for additional rate hikes in the wake of the unexpected US economic resilience, investors seem convinced that the US central bank is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. This is reinforced by the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and lending support to the AUD/USD pair.

Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets turns out to be another factor undermining the safe-haven Greenback and benefitting the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD). Bullish traders, meanwhile, seem unaffected by rather unimpressive Australian macro data, which showed that the trade surplus narrowed sharply from A$9.64 billion to A$6.786 billion in September and missed expectations.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has now found acceptance above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since July. This, along with a move beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-October decline, could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started moving into positive territory and validate the constructive setup.

This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the upside and supports prospects for a further appreciating move. Some follow-through buying beyond the October monthly swing high, around the 0.6445 region, will reaffirm the positive bias and allow spot prices to climb further towards the 0.6500-0.6510 confluence, comprising the 100-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. level.

On the flip side, the 50-day SMA resistance breakpoint – levels just below the 0.6400 mark – now seems to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below will expose the 0.6335-0.6325 horizontal support, below which the AUD/USD pair could slide further towards the 0.6300 round-figure mark. Bears might then aim to challenge the YTD trough, around the 0.6270 region, touched on October 26.

AUD/USD daily chart

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6432
Today Daily Change	0.0038
Today Daily Change %	0.59
Today daily open	0.6394

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6353
Daily SMA50	0.6391
Daily SMA100	0.6523
Daily SMA200	0.6628

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.64
Previous Daily Low	0.6318
Previous Weekly High	0.64
Previous Weekly Low	0.627
Previous Monthly High	0.6445
Previous Monthly Low	0.627
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6368
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6349
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6341
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6289
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.626
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6423
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6452
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6504

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD trims gains, back to around 1.3500

GBP/USD now surrenders part of the earlier move to multi-week peaks around 1.3530 and comes close to the 1.3500 support on Monday. Cable’s uptick comes in tandem with decent gains in the Greenback, always amid persistent uncertainty lingering over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD slips to daily lows near 1.1540

EUR/USD now loses further momentum and recedes toward the 1.1540 zone, or daily lows, on Monday. The pair’s bearish performance action comes as investors continue to assess Friday’s disappointing US jobs data in a context where renewed tensions in the Middle East lend decent support to the US Dollar.

Gold clings to daily gains; focus is back to $4,400

Gold picks up pace and advances past the $4,350 mark per troy ounce, adding to Friday’s gains. That said, the yellow metal keeps pushing harder despite the better tone in the US Dollar, and is closely following the Fed’s interest-rate outlook as well as developments in the Middle East

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP eye short-term recovery amid ETF inflows

Cryptocurrency prices are gaining traction on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $65,000, Ethereum (ETH) holding the near-term $1,900 support and Ripple (XRP) hovering above the critical $1.00 demand zone. The broad recovery comes amid capital inflows through US-listed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

US Payrolls miss – RBA on deck tomorrow

It would be remiss of me not to kick off this morning’s report with a rundown of last Friday’s US jobs report, which was a belter. Headline payrolls fell by 23,000, versus expectations of an 80,000 gain. The BLS noted that May was revised down by 66,000 (from 129,000) and June by 37,000 (from 57,000), resulting in combined May-June revisions of 103,000 lower than previous reports.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.