|

AUD/USD looking for a rebound from 0.6300

  • The AUD/USD is struggling to find support as the US Dollar movers higher across the broader market.
  • The Aussie is facing multiple bearish pressures as the RBA keeps rates unchanged as markets expected.
  • The rest of the week still sees key data points for both the Aussie and the Greenback.

The AUD/USD is pinned into the 0.6300 level after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its benchmark rate at 4.1% early Tuesday. The RBA was broadly forecast to stand pat on interest rates for their fourth straight meeting as inflation expectations ease, though the RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that inflation is likely to remain on the high side until sometime in 2025.

RBA keeps interest rate steady at 4.10% for fourth straight meeting

Diverging talking points from different officials from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) leaves rate cycle expectations hung in the middle. The Fed's Mester and Bostic both hit the newswires on Tuesday, leaving investors twisted around as Bostic cooled rate expectations going forward but Mester appearing notably hawkish.

Fed's Mester: Likely to favor hike at next meeting if current economic situation holds

Fed's Bostic: No urgency for the Fed to do anything more

The rest of the week sees plenty of data for both the Aussie (AUD) and the Greenback (USD); late Tuesday sees the Australian S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, followed by the US' own Services PMIs on Wednesday.

Thursday will see Australian Trade Balance figures early on, followed by US Challenger Job Cuts and Initial Jobless Claims, and market participants will be bristling ahead of Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

AUD/USD technical outlook 

The AUD/USD extended declines for Tuesday, tumbling into the 0.6300 handle and is struggling to find bid support as broad-market risk appetite favors the US Dollar.

The pair is down over 3% from last week's swing high, falling over 210 pips over three trading days after getting rejected from the 0.6500 handle.

Intraday chart action is capped off by the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently building a resistance zone near 0.6400.

On the daily candlesticks, the AUD/USD has slipped out of recent consolidation, and is extending a downside move after seeing a clean rejection from the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The pair is now set for a challenge of 12-month lows below 0.6200 if bearish momentum continues unchallenged.

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD technical levels

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price0.6302
Today Daily Change-0.0061
Today Daily Change %-0.96
Today daily open0.6363
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.6413
Daily SMA500.6478
Daily SMA1000.6585
Daily SMA2000.6688
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.6445
Previous Daily Low0.6362
Previous Weekly High0.6501
Previous Weekly Low0.6332
Previous Monthly High0.6522
Previous Monthly Low0.6332
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.6394
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.6414
Daily Pivot Point S10.6335
Daily Pivot Point S20.6308
Daily Pivot Point S30.6253
Daily Pivot Point R10.6418
Daily Pivot Point R20.6473
Daily Pivot Point R30.6501

Author

Joshua Gibson

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

More from Joshua Gibson
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD battles 0.7000 amid bullish USD

AUD/USD keeps its offered tone intact near 0.7000 at the start of a new week, trading near its lowest level since August 4 amid a bullish US Dollar. US yields hold near multi-year highs amid inflation risks from higher oil prices and rising bets on an October Fed rate hike. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, continues to underpin the safe-haven buck and weigh on the pair ahead of Tuesday's RBA policy announcements.

USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY finds dip-buyers and reverses part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish Minutes cap the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further supports the pair, driving it back toward 158.00.

Gold slides to $4,200 on Fed hike bets and Iran risks

Gold falls hard at the start of a new week, sliding back closer to $4,200 and the lower boundary of the monthly range. Firming October Fed rate-hike bets, along with oil-driven inflation risks, keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, helping the US Dollar regain positive traction amid persistent Iran risks. These factors weigh heavily on the bullion.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week
Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.
After the Trump Xi summit, markets are trading three clocks
The summit delivered time, not a deal. Trade, oil and chips now each run to a date, and the macro backdrop matters more than the pageantry. Markets wanted a deal and got a calendar date instead. Xi Jinping left Washington on Friday after tea at the White House and a tour of the National Archives.
Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.