AUD/USD is about flat over the week but this is a resilient performance, with most G10 currencies lower on the week vs USD. Trade above 0.7800 remains hard work but the renewed commodity price surge supports the preference of economists at Westpac to buy dips under 0.7700. What’s more, budget should be growth-positive.
Long AUD from 0.7680
“Renewed strength in iron ore and copper prices is producing fair value estimates in the low 0.80s and helping maintain Australia’s trade surpluses despite a welcome rise in import demand.”
“The domestic story remains broadly positive. We expect the government to announce around $40 B in new spending to support growth over 2 years even as the budget deficit narrows to -3.3% of GDP by 2023. Robust growth momentum should keep markets talking about reduced RBA stimulus into the key July meeting.”
“We have been looking to buy dips in AUD/USD for some time and are now long from 0.7680, seeing scope for 0.80 multi-week.”
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