AUD/USD: Bulls bail-out and Chinese data miss will not be supportive going forward

• Chinese Caixin comes in at 49.5 vs expected 50.1.
• AUD/USD moved into negative territory ahead of the Chinese data. 

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6997, pretty much flat on the sessions so far. The initial gap was sold heavily into in jittery market conditions over mixed opinions on the widely expected ceasefire in trade wars between Washington and Bejing.

• Long road ahead for deal with US post-trade truce – China Press

The Chinese data just released has not been a catalyst, so far, but is definitely a concern and could be picked up in markets in Europe and the US, if not later on in the Asian session. 

• China's Caixin manufacturing PMI slips into contraction at 49.4 in June, Aussie gives up 0.70

The PMI has not picked up on the hints of progress that were circulating prior to the trade war meeting that took place between Xi and Trump on the sidelines of the G20 but the dampened economic damage from current tariffs and slowing activity are likely playing their part in the downside of the data that is now back into contraction territory. 

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank argued that AUD/USD’s outlook is near term positive:

"The rally has reached the 55 day ma, and will shortly encounter the June peak and the April peak at .7069. We would allow this to hold the initial test. Very near term we note the 13 count on the 60 minute chart and will tighten stops. Further up resistance can be spotted at the .7207 February high. A rise above the .7207 late February high would target the December 2018 high at .7394."