- The Aussie backslid into a 12-day low against the Kiwi after the RBA delivered a dovish rate hike.
- The RBA hiked reference rates 25 basis points, but struck a notably dovish tone.
- RBA sees higher-for-longer inflation pressure, but household consumption to remain weak.
The AUD/NZD belly-flopped into a new November low of 1.0820 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a dovish rate hike, lifting the Australian central bank's reference rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The Aussie (AUD) fell 0.75% against the Kiwi (NZD) on reaction, and the pair is struggling back into the 1.0850 region.
The RBA noted that, despite the need for an additional rate hike in the face of still-high inflation risks, household consumption remains incredibly weak, and continued rate hikes could threaten to destabilize the Aussie economy as the growth outlook remains uncertain.
RBA hikes interest rate to a 12-year high of 4.35% in November
Next up on the economic calendar will be Wednesday's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Inflation Expectations for the fourth quarter, which last printed at 2.83%.
Early Thursday will see Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectations for November, which last printed at 4.8% for October, with late Thursday seeing the Business NZ's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October, which last showed a sub-50.0 printing of 45.3, implying that business expectations remain tepid.
AUD/NZD Technical Outlook
The AUD/NZD continues to see consolidation plays on the chart paper, with the pair cycling closely to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for six straight months, and Tuesday's RBA-fueled Aussie dump sees the AUD/NZD testing back into the major moving average, which has gone sideways with a lack of notable long-term trend just north of 1.0800.
A set of both higher highs and lower lows sees the technical charts set for a breakout as whipsaw action gives way to increasing volatility, but traders will want to keep an eye out for any false breaks of the topside barrier at 1.0950 or near 1.0625 down below.
AUD/NZD Daily Chart
AUD/NZD Technical Levels
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