The risk-off tone seen earlier this month looks set to continue and probably worsen this week, given the AUD/JPY pair has dropped to a near three-month low of 84.06 this Monday morning.

Trump fails in his first test

Trump’s failure to get the health care bill passed is forcing investors to question whether the Author of ‘The Art of the Deal’ would be able to deliver on fiscal front.

This is evident from the drop in the US dollar index and the strength in the safe haven Japanese Yen. Aussie dollar which has been a major beneficiary of the Trump-led rally in the commodities is now under pressure as well.

THus, the AUD/JPY cross is widely considered as a barometer of risk sentiment. The pair was last seen trading around 84.05 levels. The losses clearly point to worsening of the risk aversion during the day ahead.

S&P 500 futures are already down close to 0.80%, which is line with the sell-off in the AUD/JPY pair.

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

The daily ADX line has bottomed out and is now sloping higher, which indicates the bears are gaining strength. A break below 84.00 (zero figure) could yield 83.74 (Dec 29 low). A daily close below the same would attract fresh offers and take the pair down to sub-83.00 levels. On the higher side, key resistance levels are 84.96 (5-DMA) and 85.19 (50-DMA). Only a daily close above the 50-DMA would shift risk in favor of a technical correction to 85.85 (Mar 9 low).

15M Bearish Neutral Shrinking
1H Strongly Bearish Neutral High
4H Bullish Oversold Low
1D Bearish Neutral High
1W Bullish Overbought Low


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