AUD/JPY Price Analysis: 200-hour SMA caps upside ahead of RBA


  • AUD/JPY turns lower from the 200-hour SMA hurdle. 
  • RBA may resort to verbal intervention to stem AUD's rise. 

AUD/JPY's bounce from Friday's low of 81.98 is being capped by the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) hurdle of 83.07, with bulls refusing to lead the price action ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate decision due at 3:30 GMT. 

While the RBA is unlikely to move interest rates, it could attempt jawboning the Aussie dollar, which recently rose to three-year highs against the dollar. 

The central bank could also express concerns regarding the recent spike in domestic and global bond yields. The 10-year Australian yield rose roughly 80 basis points to 1.91% in February, tracking the US yields higher and putting downward pressure on stock markets last week. 

AUD/JPY will likely chart a convincing move above the 200-hour SMA if the RBA downplays exchange rate concerns and assures the market of more effort to stem rising yields. 

The central bank stepped up bond purchases on Monday, pushing the 10-year yield lower by more than 20 basis points and restoring the risk sentiment in stock markets. 

Hourly chart

Trend: Bullish above 200-hour SMA

Technical levels

AUD/JPY

Overview
Today last price 82.93
Today Daily Change -0.06
Today Daily Change % -0.07
Today daily open 82.99
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 81.85
Daily SMA50 80.6
Daily SMA100 78.38
Daily SMA200 76.87
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 83.13
Previous Daily Low 82.12
Previous Weekly High 84.95
Previous Weekly Low 82
Previous Monthly High 84.95
Previous Monthly Low 79.54
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 82.75
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 82.51
Daily Pivot Point S1 82.36
Daily Pivot Point S2 81.73
Daily Pivot Point S3 81.35
Daily Pivot Point R1 83.38
Daily Pivot Point R2 83.76
Daily Pivot Point R3 84.39

 

 

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