AUD/JPY depreciates on expectations of BoJ lifting negative rates, hangs near 97.50

AUD/JPY plunges to near 97.50 during the European session on Thursday, retracing its recent gains registered in the previous session. The AUD/JPY cross lost ground after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that it is "fully possible to seek an exit from stimulus while striving to achieve the 2% inflation target." He also said that the extent of rate hikes would be determined by the situation at the time if negative rates are lifted.

BoJ policy board member Junko Nakagawa highlighted that the possibility of achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably is gradually improving. Nakagawa stressed the importance of scrutinizing data analysis duration for policy decisions. Additionally, Tuesday's data showed a rebound in the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) from a 22-month low in February. This has reignited discussions about the Bank of Japan potentially exiting the negative interest rates regime, thus bolstering the Japanese Yen against other currencies.

On the other side, the Australian Trade Balance showed that the surplus fell short of expected. The monthly data showed that the surplus increased to 11,027M in February, from 10,743M prior. The market expectation was an increase to 11,500M. Aussie Imports (MoM) increased by 1.3% in February, from the previous figure of 4.8%. Monthly Exports grew by 1.6%, exceeding the previous rise of 1.5%.

Australia's economy expanded less than expected in the fourth quarter, as shown by the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released on Wednesday. These softer numbers support the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt an easing bias, which weakens the Australian Dollar (AUD) and, consequently, undermines the AUD/JPY cross.

Additionally, the positive Chinese Trade Balance data likely boosted the Australian Dollar, given Australia's close business ties with China. Additionally, the optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy could hinder the Japanese economy, thereby weakening the JPY and restricting losses in the AUD/JPY cross. China's Trade Balance for February surged to $125.16 billion, surpassing expectations of $103.7 billion and the previous figure of $75.34 billion. Additionally, year-on-year imports and exports increased by 3.5% and 7.1%, respectively. Japanese GDP Annualized for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be eyed on Friday.