Summary
ECB President Mario Draghi said last week that bank policy makers are “comfortable’ about action to head off deflation and weaken the euro in early June. The bank’s June policy meeting is June 5th. This has often been said before. Mr. Draghi and various officials have, at various times, threatened to enact negative interest rates, end the sterilization of the banks sovereign bond portfolio and launch a quantitative easing like asset purchase program. They have done nothing. It is thought that the Bundesbank and ultimately Angela Merkel have vetoed action, even though the Bundesbank has specifically said ending sterilization would be acceptable. Does the ECB expect that its promise to do something will take the euro lower, perhaps low enough that it can declare that conditions have improved enough to stall yet again? Will the ECB be forced to choose a largely symbolic interest rate cut, but eschew negative rates, because that is the one option it can take on its own? We are in for a few interesting weeks in the euro market. Join us as we examine the ECB’s choices and likely market responses.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1850 amid USD weakness
EUR/USD remains strongly bid around 1.1850 in European trading on Monday. The USD/JPY slide-led broad US Dollar weakness helps the pair build on Friday's recovery ahead of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February.
USD/JPY keeps the red below 157.00 on intervention risks
The Japanese Yen sticks to its modest intraday recovery gains against a broadly weaker US Dollar on the back of speculations that authorities will step in to stem weakness in the domestic currency. In fact, Japanese officials stepped up intervention warnings and confirmed close coordination with the US against disorderly FX moves. This, in turn, triggered an intraday USD/JPY turnaround from the 157.65 region, or a two-week top, touched in reaction to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide win in Sunday's election.
Gold remains supported by China's buying and USD weakness as traders eye US data
Gold struggles to capitalize on its intraday move up and remains below the $5,100 mark heading into the European session amid mixed cues. Data released over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Fed expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Cardano steadies as whale selling caps recovery
Cardano (ADA) steadies at $0.27 at the time of writing on Monday after slipping more than 5% in the previous week. On-chain data indicate a bearish trend, with certain whales offloading ADA. However, the technical outlook suggests bearish momentum is weakening, raising the possibility of a short-term relief rebound if buying interest picks up.
Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week
I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 9:
The JPY gathers strength against its major rivals to start the week as markets react to Sanae Takaichi's historic election victory. In the second half of the day, policymakers from the ECB, the Fed and the BoE will be delivering speeches.