Cardano Price Forecast: ADA steadies as whale selling caps recovery

Cardano (ADA) steadies at $0.27 at the time of writing on Monday after slipping more than 5% in the previous week. On-chain data indicate a bearish trend, with certain whales offloading ADA. However, the technical outlook suggests bearish momentum is weakening, raising the possibility of a short-term relief rebound if buying interest picks up.

Whales offload 170 million tokens

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data supports a bearish outlook for Cardano, as certain whales (large-wallet holders) are reducing exposure and increasing the selling pressure.

The metric indicates that whales holding between 10 million and 100 million (blue line) ADA tokens have shed a total of 180 million tokens since Friday. During the same period, holders with 1-10 million (yellow line) have accumulated just 10 million ADA tokens, bringing the net to 170 million tokens sold.

Derivatives data show a bearish bias

Cardano’s futures OI on the Binance exchange dropped to $65.95 million on Monday, the lowest level since the end of September 2024, and has been steadily falling since mid-January 2026. This drop in OI reflects waning investor participation and projects a bearish outlook.

Moreover, Cardano’s funding rate data also supports the bearish outlook. The metric turned negative on Sunday and currently stands at -0.0070%, indicating shorts are paying longs and suggesting bearish sentiment toward ADA.

Cardano Price Forecast: ADA’s momentum indicators show fading bearish strength

Cardano price corrected by more than 5% last week and slipped toward the October 21, 2023, low of $0.24 on Friday. However, ADA closed the day on a positive note after hitting a low of $0.22, its lowest level since mid-June 2023. At the time of writing on Monday, ADA is trading at around $0.27.

If ADA recovers, it could extend the recovery toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.29 (drawn from the January 14 high of $0.42 and Friday’s low of $0.22).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 35, rebounding from oversold territory, hinting at fading bearish momentum. For the recovery rally to be sustained, the RSI must move above the neutral level. The Moving Average Convergence (MACD) lines are converging, with fading red histogram bars below the neutral level, suggesting fading bearish strength.

However, if ADA resumes its ongoing downward trend, it could decline toward Friday’s low of $0.22.