Summary
There are two ways to look at the Aussie's 13.8% top to bottom (1.0582-0.9113) fall against the US Dollar since mid-April. First is the immediate context. It is rare for a major currency to have a fall of this magnitude without a substantial subsequent retracement. The small return since the June 28 low has not reached even the shallowest of the Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.9457 (23.6%). The second lens is historical. Even at its currency level against the dollar of 0.9234 (7/1), and including its run from 0.6009 in the fall of 2008 to the July 2011 all-time record of 1.1081, the Aussie is still 22% below its 20 year average of 0.7588. Has the expansion of the Chinese, Indian and other emerging market economies and their need for resources brought the providers and their currencies to a higher natural plane of valuation? Of to put it another way, has the Australian economy entered a new and long-term state of economic expansion in tandem with emerging markets?Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains bid, focus stays on 1.1900
EUR/USD has broken its two-day run of losses and is ticking modestly higher on Thursday, hovering around the 1.1880 area as the US Dollar struggles to find clear direction. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected, taking a bit of shine off the Greenback, but markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.
GBP/USD sticks to the bid bias, still below 1.3700
GBP/USD is trading with decent gains around 1.3650 on Thursday. Indeed, Cable is attempting to shake off the weakness seen earlier in the week amid another choppy session for the Greenback, while a run of disappointing UK data has so far failed to derail the pair’s tentative recovery.
Gold recedes slightly, trades below $5,100
Gold remains stuck in choppy trade on Thursday, deflating marginally just below the $5,100 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar drifts without a clear trend. Softer US Treasury yields across the curve are offering some support, but with markets treading carefully ahead of Friday’s US CPI release, conviction remains limited and price action continues to look hesitant.
LayerZero Price Forecast: ZRO steadies as markets digest Zero blockchain announcement
LayerZero (ZRO) trades above $2.00 at press time on Thursday, holding steady after a 17% rebound the previous day, which aligned with the public announcement of the Zero blockchain and Cathie Wood joining the advisory board.
A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness
Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 12:
The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals in the second half of the week, supported by the upbeat labor market data for January. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and January Existing Home Sales data on Thursday.