Forex Today: Upbeat US jobs data help USD stabilize
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 12:
The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its rivals in the second half of the week, supported by the upbeat labor market data for January. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and January Existing Home Sales data on Thursday.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.31% | -2.89% | -0.69% | -1.60% | -0.72% | -0.80% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | 0.19% | -2.47% | -0.20% | -1.11% | -0.23% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.31% | -0.19% | -2.34% | -0.38% | -1.29% | -0.42% | -0.50% | |
| JPY | 2.89% | 2.47% | 2.34% | 2.30% | 1.37% | 2.28% | 2.09% | |
| CAD | 0.69% | 0.20% | 0.38% | -2.30% | -0.80% | -0.01% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | 1.60% | 1.11% | 1.29% | -1.37% | 0.80% | 0.88% | 0.83% | |
| NZD | 0.72% | 0.23% | 0.42% | -2.28% | 0.01% | -0.88% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.80% | 0.31% | 0.50% | -2.09% | 0.11% | -0.83% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130,000 in January. This reading followed the 48,000 (revised from 50,000) increase recorded in December and came in above the market expectation of 70,000. Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.5% from 62.4%. With the immediate reaction, the USD Index gained traction and climbed to the 97.30 region. Early Thursday, the USD Index stays in a consolidation phase and moves sideways at around 97. Meanwhile, US stock index futures rise between 0.2% and 0.3%, pointing to an improving risk mood.
The data from the UK showed early Thursday that the UK economy expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.1% in the three months to December 2025, following a 0.1% growth in the third quarter (Q3). The UK GDP grew by 1.0% year-over-year (YoY) in Q4 2025 vs. 1.2% expected and a 1.2% growth in Q3 (revised from 1.3%). Finally, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production declined 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively, over the month in December. Both readings missed market expectations. GBP/USD showed no immediate reaction to these figures and was last seen trading flat on the day, at around 1.3630.
EUR/USD moves sideways near 1.1870 after closing in negative territory on Wednesday. Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will be delivering speeches later in the day.
USD/JPY extended its weekly slide despite the USD's resilience on Wednesday and closed the third consecutive day in the red. The pair continues to push lower early Thursday and trades at its lowest level in two weeks below 153.00.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Thursday that she expects the labor market to remain tight and inflation above target for some time. Hunter added that she will be closely assessing capacity pressures in the economy and labor market. AUD/USD gained more than 0.7% on Wednesday and reached a fresh three-year high near 0.7150. The pair corrects lower but holds comfortably above 0.7100 in the European session on Thursday.
Gold struggles to gather bullish momentum but manages to hold above $5,000 after posting moderate gains on Wednesday.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
