Steve Ruffley
SteveRuffley.com
Summary
The Elliot Wave theory is another great example of a technical analysis tool that relies on the ‘self-fulfilling’’ nature of trading. The trick with interpreting the Elliot wave in my opinion is certainly on the 3rd wave. The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale. In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it. Personally I never trade the Elliot wave on the way up, only on the way down. This is a much more robust way of making sure you apply the correct rules and make maximum profits. I will show you how I trade, then you will not be trading the ‘theory’ but the resulting price correction and action.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.1850 after dismal German sentiment data
EUR/USD stays in negative territory below 1.1850 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. Renewed US Dollar strength, combined with a softer risk tone keep the pair undermined alongside downbeat German ZEW sentiment readings for February.
GBP/USD falls toward 1.3550, pressured by weak UK jobs report
GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure and extends its decline below 1.3600 on Tuesday. The United Kingdom employment data suggested worsening labor market conditions, bolstering bets for a BoE interest rate cut next month and making it difficult for Pound Sterling to stay resilient against its peers.
Gold recovers modestly, stays deep in red below $4,950
Gold (XAU/USD) stages a rebound but remains deep in negative territory below $4,950 after touching its weakest level in over a week near $4,850 earlier in the day. Renewed US Dollar strength makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather recovery momentum despite the risk-averse market atmosphere.
Canada CPI expected to show sticky inflation in January, still above BoC’s target
Economists see the headline CPI rising by 2.4% in a year to January, still above the BoC’s target and matching December’s increase. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise by 0.1%.
UK jobs market weakens, bolstering rate cut hopes
In the UK, the latest jobs report made for difficult reading. Nonetheless, this represents yet another reminder for the Bank of England that they need to act swiftly given the collapse in inflation expected over the coming months.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 17:
Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets early Tuesday as trading conditions normalize following the US holiday. The economic calendar will feature ZEW sentiment figures from Germany, the weekly ADP Employment Change 4-week Average data from the US and January inflation report from Canada.