Summary
What is the quality of the US recovery? Is it sustainable? Can it last if the rest of the world wanders in varying degrees of economic purgatory? American GDP was 0.95 percent annualized in the first half of the year. In the first seven months 1.6 million jobs were created, the best track in over 15 years yet many of those jobs were part-time. The unemployment rate has dropped steadily over four years but largely because people have forgone work. The labor participation rate is at its lowest level in more than a generation. Since the beginning of 2012 the annual increase in average hourly wages has been but 2.0 percent. Real inflation, the kind that affects household spending has averaged 1.8 percent, leaving little extra income to boost spending. Real personal consumption has grown 2.1 percent annually for the past two-and –half years barely half its 3.5 percent rate in the first half of the last decade. If the U.S. economy is 70 percent consumption how will rising economic growth obtain? We will try to make sense of recent US economic statistics, put them in historical context and judge the degree of prospective U.S. autarky?Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850
EUR/USD inches lower during the Asian hours on Monday, trading around 1.1870 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming improving momentum. RSI has cooled from prior overbought readings but stabilizes above 50, suggesting dips could stay limited before buyers reassert control.
GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes
The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.
Gold slides below $5,000 amid USD uptick and positive risk tone; downside seems limited
Gold attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and reverses a part of Friday's strong move up of over $150 from sub-$4,900 levels. The commodity slides back below the $5,000 psychological mark during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited amid a combination of supporting factors.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate within key ranges as selling pressure eases
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have been trading sideways within key ranges following the massive correction. Meanwhile, XRP recovers slightly, breaking above the key resistance zone. The top three cryptocurrencies hint at a potential short-term recovery, with momentum indicators showing fading bearish signs.
Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation
Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.
Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight
US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.