Tanvir Zafar
Independent Analyst
The US dollar’s weakening trend in 2025, driven by the Trump administration’s aggressive fiscal policies and trade tensions, has shifted the global investment landscape. For US investors, that means recalibrating strategies on how and where to invest both domestically and across global markets.
The dollar drop squeezes US purchasing power overseas but also raises clear signals to diversify or get left behind. Meanwhile, the Chinese renminbi (RMB) remains relatively steady, as recent monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China aim to stimulate growth while maintaining currency stability.
Why does this matter? Because macro capital movements follow currency trade fluctuations, and smart real estate investors watch these flows closely.
The cooling US real estate market
The US housing market is on slow grounds. The home price trajectory slowed considerably with June 2025 annual price growth at just 1.3%, marking the slowest increase in two years.
Sun Belt cities like Dallas and Austin are winning the popularity due to job growth and migration. Meanwhile dense coastal hubs like New York and San Francisco are feeling the pinch, as affordability is tightening and remote work continues to hollow out demand.
Renters are tightening their budgets too. Affordability pressures are mounting as 52% of renters spent a third of their disposable income towards rent. This financial strain is causing many renters to prioritize more affordable options as they extend their search time, leading to slower rent growth.
Meanwhile, demand for industrial warehouses is increasing as ecommerce volumes continue to grow. Per CBRE, ecommerce in Q3 2024 accounted for a record 23.2% of total retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline), and is expected to target 25% by the end of 2025.
China’s real estate outlook
China’s real estate market is navigating a complex regulatory environment working to balance the nation’s growth with financial stability. The government’s targeted policies aim to stabilize prices while encouraging infrastructure investments, particularly in second-tier cities.
Two major companies illustrate this momentum. China Vanke, the largest residential developer, delivered 45,000 housing units across 130 projects in the first half of 2025, amid market headwinds. Despite liquidity challenges, China Evergrande Group shifted to completing 15 million square meters of integrated residential and commercial projects in 2024, emphasizing multifunctional urban environments designed for greater resilience.
This shift reflects a broader global trend toward mixed-use, sustainable real estate development in China, aligned with the RMB’s relative stability amid global currency shifts. Stable RMB policies supports foreign and domestic investor confidence in these long-term urban projects.
In regional growth, the Tangshan Fengrun North New City Project for instance reflects China’s broader trend of developing mixed-use communities. It blends residential and commercial infrastructure to support economic growth and improve the quality of life in Tier-2 cities. The project, led by Tony Tandijono, spans over 1.1 million square meters and includes villas, residential buildings, commercial spaces, hotels, apartments, offices, and supporting facilities.
What this means for US investors
The weakening USD combined with relative RMB stability presents a nuanced investment landscape. For US investors, Chinese real estate projects may seem costly on a USD basis, but they represent access to some of the fastest-growing urban areas in the world.
At the same time, US markets require a tailored approach. Residential demand concentrates in growth regions like the Sun Belt cities, while industrial real estate trends are growing through increasing demand for ecommerce.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: Upside remains capped by 1.1600
EUR/USD trades in an unconvincing fashion around the 1.1560 region despite the better tone in the broader risk complex and amid the equally vacillating price action around the US Dollar. Investors, in the meantime, should pay close attention to developments from the US political arena, particularly anything related to the potential end of the US government shutdown.
GBP/USD holding just below 1.32 as UK labor data rounds the corner
GBP/USD kept its foot on the gas pedal on Monday, extending into a four-day win streak as Cable traders gear up for the latest round of UK employment figures. Veterans Day will see a moderation of market flows in the US on Tuesday, but hopes that the US could be close to wrapping up the longest government funding closure in its history should keep risk appetite well bid and put a hard cap on bullish US Dollar flows.
USD/JPY gathers strength above 154.00 amid hopes for end to US shutdown
The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers to near 154.10 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Japanese Yen as hopes grow for a potential deal to end the 41-day US federal government shutdown in the coming days. The US ADP Employment Change Weekly is due later on Tuesday.
Editors’ Picks
NZD/USD holds lower ground below 0.5650 after stable RBNZ Inflation Expectations
NZD/USD is holding lower ground below 0.5650 in Asian trading on Tuesday, staying defensive following the release of the RBNZ Q4 two-year inflation expectations data, which steadied at 2.8%. The pair is undermined by a renewed US Dollar upside and a cautious market mood.
AUD/USD remains stuck within tight range below 0.6550
AUD/USD is consolidating below mid-0.6500s, or a one-week top, in the Asian session. Hopes for the end of a prolonged US government shutdown boost investors' confidence, which, along with diminishing odds of more RBA rate cuts, acts as a tailwind for the Aussie, but a fresh US Dollar upturn seems to cap the pair's move higher.
Gold holds gains near $4,150 as focus shifts to the weekly ADP jobs report.
Gold price holds positive ground near $4,150 in the Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher after reaching a two-week high in the previous session, amid prospects for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in December and a softer US Dollar. The US ADP Employment Change Weekly will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.
Coinbase rolls out public token sale platform, Monad to kick off launch
Coinbase announced that it will roll out a new platform for crypto offerings. The platform will enable individual investors to purchase digital tokens before they are listed on the exchange. Following its launch, Layer-1 network Monad will offer its token for sale on the platform on November 17.
AI shares an intrusive thought
If you’ve been following financial media over the past few weeks, you’ve probably seen the debate about whether the current AI-fuelled rally is a bubble. I’ve said many times that I believe it is—but the bubble question is almost secondary to a more immediate issue: what AI is about to do to jobs.
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