Boris Schlossberg
BKTraders and Prop Traders Edge
It’s amazing how much time we all spend looking for new setups when none of them really matter in the end because there is no such thing as a trading edge.
Oh I know I know. You’ve watched thousands of YouTube videos, you’ve listened to hundreds of podcasts, you’ve read multiple books on trading where everyone talks about “edge”. They use fancy words and even fancier math to sift through centuries of data to find the “perfect” strategies. It would be highly amusing if it wasn’t so tragic.
Ask Andrew Lo, famed professor of MIT who certainly knows more math than all of us combined how his vaunted “Behavioral Finance” strategy is doing. (Hint: Your Bank CD at 10 basis per year - yes 0.1% per year - would have done a better job over the past 5 years).
Or maybe you want to consult Cliff Asness who after all went to Wharton and Chicago and has a Phd and worked for Goldman Sachs Asset Management and was so absolutely certain that the value factor was the way to invest and then proceeded to bleed out a decade of underperformance which cost investors billions upon billions of dollars.
These very smart, very talented people. I am not dunking in them. I am just pointing out the futility of believing in the concept of edge.
Edge doesn’t exist. What we call edge is just the process of being at the right place at the right time. It is that perfect moment when your strategy aligns with the current market conditions but it is ALWAYS temporary.
If you were an orange juice trader ( yes just like in Trading Places ) there was one price pattern you could always count on. Prices went down in the winter when Florida flooded the market with their harvest and then rose in the summer when supply dried up.
That worked like clockwork until the mid 80s when Brazil decided to get into the orange juice game.
Because Brazil is in the Southern Hemisphere the supply curve flipped on its head. Suddenly summer OJ prices plummeted and all those carefully constructed seasonal spreads blew up.
So much for your edge.
There are and always will be just two strategies in the market - Continuation and Reversal.
If the market is in continuation mode the stupidest, simplest moving average crossover strategy will make you millions.
If the market is range bound then Bollinger Bands, RSI, Stochastics, MACD - ANYTHING will catch every turn and make you look like a trading genius.
Don’t be fooled. You ain't that smart. You are just lucky.
But that is exactly the point. Our whole job as traders is to just ride that tidal wave of luck while keeping our hubris in check.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve
EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued.
GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets
GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season.
USD/JPY corrects further to near 155.80, gives up entire BoJ policy-led gains
USD/JPY surrenders its entire gains made on the BoJ policy announcement day, and retraces to near 155.80. Investors are in vogue over the outlook of the BoJ’s monetary tightening campaign. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by at least 50 bps next year.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD Price Annual Forecast: Growth to displace central banks from the limelight in 2026 Premium
What a year! Donald Trump’s return to the United States (US) Presidency was no doubt what led financial markets throughout 2025. His not-always-unexpected or surprising decisions shaped investors’ sentiment, or better said, unprecedented uncertainty.
Gold Price Annual Forecast: 2026 could see new record-highs but a 2025-like rally is unlikely Premium
Gold hit multiple new record highs throughout 2025. Trade-war fears, geopolitical instability and monetary easing in major economies were the main drivers behind Gold’s rally.
GBP/USD Price Annual Forecast: Will 2026 be another bullish year for Pound Sterling? Premium
Having wrapped up 2025 on a positive note, the Pound Sterling (GBP) eyes another meaningful and upbeat year against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of 2026.
US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: 2026 set to be a year of transition, not capitulation Premium
The US Dollar (USD) enters the new year at a crossroads. After several years of sustained strength driven by US growth outperformance, aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, and recurrent episodes of global risk aversion, the conditions that underpinned broad-based USD appreciation are beginning to erode, but not collapse.
Bitcoin Price Annual Forecast: BTC holds long-term bullish structure heading into 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up 2025 as one of its most eventful years, defined by unprecedented institutional participation, major regulatory developments, and extreme price volatility.
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The challenge: Timing the market and trader psychology
Successful trading often comes down to timing – entering and exiting trades at the right moments. Yet timing the market is notoriously difficult, largely because human psychology can derail even the best plans. Two powerful emotions in particular – fear and greed – tend to drive trading decisions off course.