Andrew Pancholi
Market Timing Report
Back in November 2024, the American public were looking forward to a huge economic recovery based on the promises following the re-election of Donald Trump. People were poised for the Trump Bump. However, cycles were already telling a different story. The bull market was already nearly 15 years in from the major low following the 2007 global financial crisis. Important price targets were looming on the radar. Most importantly, little-known cycles were coming into play. Take a look at these charts.
Firstly, a key price target (one that we had been forewarning you about over several months) was rapidly approaching. This is shown in the first chart. Such an important target, for those of you who understand technical analysis, cannot be exceeded without a significant pullback, correction, or even crash. More importantly, take a look at this chart.
Below this monthly chart of the S&P 500 index, which goes back to 2008, you will see a series of histograms. When these histograms spike, we can expect changes in trend. They are based on market cycles interacting at a high level. If you take a close look, you will see how previous spikes have aligned with significant turning points.
The key benefit of these histogram spikes is that they are predictive—in other words, they are known in advance. As we approached December over the following weeks, we had a very large spike in front of us. This put us on alert for a major trend change.
At the bottom left, you can also see that such a spike identified the beginning of the bull market in 2009. Sentiment at that time was incredibly bearish, with the world having just lived through the global financial crisis.
Sentiment at the time of Trump’s re-election was incredibly bullish.
This bull market had effectively been running since 2009, following the end of the global financial crisis. With the exception of the short pullback in early 2020 (the one that tied in with a 90-year cycle to within six weeks), most people under the age of 35 have not witnessed a proper bear market. That includes some of our professional portfolio manager friends at some of the largest funds in the world.
The purpose of these histograms, and the entire timing system, is to get the odds on your side. This spike is putting us on alert. It does not necessarily forecast a crash. This enabled our followers to take advantage of what not only lay ahead, but also what is coming up next. We are now looking at key price targets, combined with cycles, to provide us with the next opportunity.
The Market Timing Report/Cycles Analysis Ltd is a research company. The information contained herein is for general education purposes and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations to any person or entity. Any reference to a transaction, trade, position, holding, security, market, or level is purely meant to educate readers about possible risks and opportunities in the marketplace and are not meant to imply that any person or entity should take any action whatsoever without first evaluating such action(s) in light of their own situation either on their own or through a professional advisor. If a person or entity does not believe they are qualified to make such decisions, they should seek professional advice. The prices listed are for reference only and are in no way intended to represent an actual trade, entry price or exit price conducted by The Market Timing Report/Cycles Analysis Ltd, portfolios managed by any entity affiliated with The Market Timing Report/Cycles Analysis Ltd or any principal or employee of The Market Timing Report/The Market Timing Report/Cycles Analysis Ltd . This information is not a substitute for professional advice of any nature, including tax, legal, and financial. While we believe the information contained herein to be accurate, all numbers should be verified by the reader through independent sources. Trading securities, options, futures, or any other security involves risk and can result in the immediate and substantial loss of the capital invested.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820
EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.
GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460
After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.
Japanese Yen gives back half of early gains against USD ahead of US PPI data
The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders half of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 155.90 as the JPY falls back, but is still 0.15% down.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: Fed calm, ECB steady, but the Dollar still leads Premium
EUR/USD is still struggling to find real traction. The pair has tried to stabilise, but momentum keeps fading, leaving the door open to further weakness.
Gold: Falling US yields, geopolitics help XAU/USD hold ground Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) gained traction and climbed above $5,200, ending the fourth consecutive week in positive territory. The next round of US-Iran talks and crucial macroeconomic data releases from the US will be watched closely by market participants in the short term.
GBP/USD: Will Pound Sterling defend key 1.3450 support ahead of US jobs data? Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) entered a bearish consolidation phase against the US Dollar (USD), after having tested critical support near the 1.3450 level on several occasions.
Bitcoin: Another month of losses, and it’s been five
Bitcoin (BTC) price is stabilizing around $68,000 at the time of writing on Friday, but the Crypto King is poised to close February on a fragile footing, marking its fifth consecutive month of losses since October and a rare start to the year with back-to-back monthly corrections.
US Dollar: At a crossroads; Fed steady, tariffs in flux Premium
The US Dollar’s (USD) upward momentum from the previous week seems to have encountered a tough nut to crack in the 98.00 region, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
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