So if FX a zero sum game? Of course it is. Just read John Forman’s article on the difference between asset markets and contract markets. FX like all futures markets (including ironically enough those for the Dow and S&P) is a contract based market. You own no assets so you cannot derive any intrinsic appreciation from your investment. Your gains do indeed come from other participants losses. More importantly FX like all commodities is a bounded market. Even if you were to take delivery of euros, or corn, or even oil -- there is absolutely no reason to believe that your investment will appreciate 10 years forward. Commodity prices are subject to supply and demand forces and therefore will always (unless we reach a terminal point of supply) fluctuate in a range. Equities on the other hand are valued on their accrued income stream which over time can multiply manifold. That’s why between 1970-2000 the Dow went from 1000-10000 but GBP/USD simply oscillated between 1.000-2.000.
Other opinions on the same debate:
• Richard Olsen: Trading Forex Is A Positive Sum Game
• John Forman: Retail Forex Trading is a Negative Sum Game
When it comes to stocks most investors make the pretense of trying to own value when in fact all they care about is the price of the security. Witness the recent price action in AAPL which has more cash on hand than the US government yet is dumped by the market like some two bit retailer on the verge of bankruptcy.
My point is that in our modern world there are no investors, only speculators. Stock guys can give you a very nice story about growth and valuation but at the first sign of price declines they will bail. ( And please no emails to me about how you are all long term holders. Remember -- long term in asset markets is decades, sometimes centuries). So if everyone is a speculator then you might as well trade in the biggest spec market of them all. At least in FX you won’t have any illusions as to where you stand.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates
Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.
GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above
GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.
USD/JPY gathers strength to near 157.50 as Takaichi’s party wins snap elections
The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers to around 157.45 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Japanese Yen weakens against the US Dollar after Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party won an outright majority in Sunday’s lower house election, opening the door to more fiscal stimulus by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY gathers strength to near 157.50 as Takaichi’s party wins snap elections
The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers to around 157.45 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Japanese Yen weakens against the US Dollar after Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party won an outright majority in Sunday’s lower house election, opening the door to more fiscal stimulus by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates
Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.
Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space
After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000. The US economic calendar will feature Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index data for January, which could influence the market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and impact Gold’s performance.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave
US NFP and CPI data awaited after Warsh’s nomination as Fed chief. Yen traders lock gaze on Sunday’s snap election. UK and Eurozone Q4 GDP data also on the agenda. China CPI and PPI could reveal more weakness in domestic demand.
Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election Premium
The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.
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