EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD regains balance, targets 1.1800
EUR/USD has lost a bit of momentum after its earlier push higher and is now attempting to reclaim the key 1.1800 barrier on Monday. In the meantime, investors remain focused on the evolving US–EU trade relationship after President Trump’s announcement of sweeping global tariff hikes.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1820. The 20-, 50- and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) slope lower, with the 20 SMA beneath the 50 and 100, underscoring bearish pressure. Price trades below the 50 and 100 SMAs but holds above the 200 SMA, keeping broader support in place. The 50 SMA at 1.1836 acts as immediate resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 55, indicating modest positive momentum without overbought conditions.
The descending trend line from 1.2023 limits gains, with resistance at 1.1838. Measured from the 1.1590 low to the 1.2026 high, the 50% retracement at 1.1808 offers nearby support. A break below it would turn focus to the 61.8% retracement at 1.1757, while a topside breach of trendline resistance could target the 38.2% retracement at 1.1860.
Fundamental Overview
The Supreme Court ruled against Trump's tariffs on Friday, explaining that the president exceeded his constitutional authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose unilateral tariffs on trading partners.
In response, President Trump vowed that his administration will impose even further tariffs using alternative legal frameworks, specifically citing national security conventions under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Over the weekend, Trump said that he will raise global tariffs to 15% from 10% "effective immediately" and warned that additional levies would follow.
Meanwhile, the European Commission came out with a statement on Sunday, rejecting the the US tariff increase and asking the US to stick to the terms of the EU-US trade deal reached in 2025.
The economic calendar will not offer any high-impact data releases from the US. The uncertainty surrounding the US trade regime, and its potential impact on the economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, could make it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to stage a meaningful rebound and allow EUR/USD to extend its rebound.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US Dollar comeback in the makes? Premium
The US Dollar (USD) stands victorious at the end of another week, with the EUR/USD pair trading near a four-week low of 1.1742, while the USD retains its strength despite some discouraging American data released at the end of the week.
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
US Dollar struggles as Trump tariff uncertainty grows
The US Dollar struggles to stay resilient against its rivals to start the new week as investors assess the headlines surrounding the US trade regime. After the Supreme Court ruled against US President Trump's tariffs, Trump announced that he will hike global tariff rates to 15%.
Gold advances to four-week highs, focus is on $5,200
Gold is holding onto its bullish tone on Monday, hovering near monthly highs well above the $5,100 mark per troy ounce. Fresh trade-war concerns, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are keeping demand for the yellow metal well on the rise.
EUR/USD regains balance, targets 1.1800
EUR/USD has lost a bit of momentum after its earlier push higher and is now attempting to reclaim the key 1.1800 barrier on Monday. In the meantime, investors remain focused on the evolving US–EU trade relationship after President Trump’s announcement of sweeping global tariff hikes.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP intensify sell-off as tariff uncertainty weighs
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are trading amid increasing selling pressure at the time of writing on Monday, as investors react to fresh trade uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s push for more tariffs.
Supreme Court nixes tariffs, Trump teases 15% global tariff
On February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global tariffs under IEEPA authority were unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the framework. However, the relief was short-lived. Within hours, Trump floated a 15% blanket tariff under an alternative legal authority.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and WikipediaJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and WikipediaECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).