EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD rebounds from lows, back to 1.1360
After bottoming out near 1.1320, EUR/USD gathers some traction and reclaims the 1.1350-1.1360 band as the NA session draws to a close on Wednesday. The pair’s drop to multi-month lows comes in response to the continuous leg higher in the US Dollar, which remains propped up by hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and keep a bearish near-term tone. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 38. Momentum indicators together suggest that downside pressure persists even as the EUR/USD pair attempts to stabilize above the recent swing lows.
Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront a hurdle near the 1.1575-1.1580 horizontal support breakpoint ahead of the 1.1600 round figure. Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA at 1.1638 should act as a strong barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a more sustained recovery. On the downside, acceptance below the 1.1500 mark would expose the EUR/USD pair to further weakness as momentum remains skewed to the downside.
Fundamental Overview
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Winds of change blowing into the Federal Reserve Premium
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
AUD/USD stays offered below 0.6900 ahead of jobs data
AUD/USD extends its bearish performance and breaches below the 0.6900 support ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The Greenback’s robust recovery keeps the pair under heavy pressure, opening the door to a potential test of its key 200-day SMA sooner rather than later. Moving forward, all the attention will be on the release of the labour market report in Oz early on Thursday.
EUR/USD rebounds from lows, back to 1.1360
After bottoming out near 1.1320, EUR/USD gathers some traction and reclaims the 1.1350-1.1360 band as the NA session draws to a close on Wednesday. The pair’s drop to multi-month lows comes in response to the continuous leg higher in the US Dollar, which remains propped up by hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.
Gold pressured near fresh 2026 lows
Gold accelerates its decline and gyrates around the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday, its lowest level since November 2025. In the meantime, tighter-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the yellow metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.
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Majors
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Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
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About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).