EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1670 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair finds support as rising oil prices, elevated bond yields, and escalating Middle East tensions drive Eurozone inflation concerns. These factors have boosted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is widely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in September following its June tightening.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is poised to consolidate further, as price action has failed to extend the market structure of higher highs and higher lows. Momentum shifted bullish, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted overbought, an indication that bulls are in charge.
However, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD is for it to continue trading sideways.
For a bullish resumption, the first resistance for EUR/USD is 1.1700. A breach of the latter will expose the 1.1750 psychological level, followed by the May 6 high at 1.1795, ahead of 1.1800. On further strength, the next stop is the April 17 swing high of 1.1849.
On the downside, if EUR/USD dives below 1.1650, the next area of interest would become the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1631. Below this level lies the 1.1600 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.1574 and by 1.1500.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
Fundamental Analysis
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Meanwhile, sovereign yields on longer-maturity Eurozone securities remain near multi-decade highs. They are tracking US yield movements driven by worries over Washington’s deficit spending and fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be taking a complacent approach to persistent inflation.
Strategists at Scotiabank note that the flow of macro news has been relatively light, with "fundamental releases have been limited" ahead of what they describe as this week’s key event: "the German IFO business sentiment figures scheduled for Tuesday." They add that shifting rate dynamics are weighing modestly on the single currency, as "yield spreads have pulled back slightly, eroding some of the EUR’s support as US Treasury yields have climbed over the past week or so."
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure after the US Treasury decided to double its buyback operations for longer-dated bonds. Reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could utilize nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to fund these operations. Tensions are also escalating geopolitically, as the US expands secondary sanctions against entities doing business with Iran. Secretary Bessent warned that a major financial institution could face sanctions this week, explicitly noting that China will not be exempt.
Looking ahead, market participants are focused on key US economic events scheduled for this week. Consumer confidence data will be released on Tuesday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Wednesday. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver a speech on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, which could offer further direction for the Greenback.
Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the “calendar and event risk this week is significant,” noting that the combination of key data releases and policy signals is encouraging investors to reassess exposures. In their view, this backdrop creates “the potential for some moderate gains in the USD broadly in the short run” as market participants “pare back positioning,” with the Dollar benefiting from a more cautious stance ahead of the upcoming risk events.
EUR/USD Forecast Poll
1 Week
- 50%
- Bullish
- 0%
- Bearish
- 50%
- Sideways
1 Month
- 13%
- Bullish
- 75%
- Bearish
- 12%
- Sideways
1 Quarter
- 24%
- Bullish
- 35%
- Bearish
- 41%
- Sideways
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world's largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as "the Cable", a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB's mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro's (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank's work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.