• Ripple price action bounces in a pennant for a fourth consecutive week.
  • XRP price sees bulls staying on the sidelines or less committed as near-term tail risk is too significant to take on.
  • Expect to see a bearish result for the pennant breakout before the situation stabilises.

Ripple (XRP) price action sees its price action further respecting a longer-term pennant that has been there for over a month. Last week was a perfect test on the low and the high barriers, and again this week, price action looks set for a breakout next week. Seeing the technical death cross with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day SMA, all the moving parts of the geopolitical backdrop, and the FED FOMC meeting next week, plenty of triggers or catalysts with more tail risk and headwinds than tailwinds.

Ripple price set to test the lows before finding solid ground for a bounce

Since December of last year, XRP price is still under siege of the technical death cross. Looking towards the current situation, that death cross appeared to be an omen for what was to come with global markets at the edge of stagflation and possible hyperinflation in some parts of Europe to come. The safety net called central banking is scrambling to keep the economic system together as inflation asks for hikes on the one hand, but the Ukraine war and influx of refugees into European countries demand monetary easing and credit support. 

XRP price is with all these moving elements, thus not in the best environment to start a bull run for the medium to longer term. Although a pennant breakout was to the upside, expect next week a move to the downside towards $0.6500 or $0.600, with that last one falling in line with the monthly S1 and the low of February. In case the situation in Ukraine further deteriorates with Putin invading Kyiv and other key cities in Ukraine, expect to see a sharp drop through the S1 support towards $0.4975, the high from November and on the cusp of entering a bear market for 2022.

XRP/USD weekly chart

XRP/USD weekly chart

Ripple price still could see a bullish breakout of the pennant should some substantial progress be made that is enough for Russia to hold a longer-term cease-fire. That would immediately trigger a pickup in price action with heavy demand and see a return to $0.8500. The red descending trend line seen as the barometer of the downtrend could get broken to the upside and show more profits to come towards $1.00 by the end of next week depending on the progress and positive news.

 

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