Bitcoin is boring

Yes, you read that correctly. Bitcoin (BTC) is boring. But why? It is an exciting, new technology and payment system that can solve many problems surrounding regular currencies. I am not talking about Bitcoin’s value but how its price has behaved since the Bear Market low in November 2022.

Namely, Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, comprising three Bullish years and one Bearish year, which are the four phases of Bitcoin.  Currently, it should be in its last Bullish phase/year. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1 The four phases of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle

Before we go to the bigger picture, you may have noticed that BTC has been stuck in a $14K range since November last year: $92-106K. Yesterday, it tagged that lower level once again and bounced strongly. See the red box in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Our preferred detailed, short-term EWP count for Bitcoin

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Indicator registered its lowest reading since October last year: 44. Readings below 50 often coincide with significant bottoms. See Figure 3 below. All while, BTC was technically still range-bound and retesting its November, December, and January lows. Thus, while many panicked, BTC staged a rally, completed a bullish reversal candle, and is back in the middle of the $92-106K range: $99K.

Figure 3. Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index is overlayed with its price chart

If we zoom out back to the November 2022 low, we can observe that Bitcoin has, believe it or not, mostly been range-bound. See Figure 4 below. Since that low, BTC has been stuck in six different ranges, including the current one. These ranges lasted anywhere from two to nine months: black rectangles. The time it spent rallying, measured as a breakout from the previous range to the top of the following range, has only been six months: green rectangles.

Figure 4. Bitcoin has only rallied 6 out of the last 26 months

Therefore, BTC has technically only rallied 25% of the time since its November 2022 low and has been range-bound 75% over that period. So yes, technically speaking, Bitcoin is boring. Not much will happen for a long time until it will rally quickly to the next zone. Although only time will tell if yesterday’s panic reading was warranted, for now, BTC is back to being boring: inside the $92-106K range.

A breakout will target ~$120K based on simple symmetry: $106-92+$106=$120K, while our current Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count has a target zone of $117-125K based on the confluence of several different wave degrees. Conversely, a breakdown below $92K and especially $89K can induce a waterfall decline back to the top of the previous range zone: $70K. However, we must expect a breakout based on the last five basing patterns.