Trump remains optimistic on the Russia-Ukraine deal this week

EU mid-market update: Putin's 30-hours Easter ceasefire ends as Trump remains optimistic on the Russia-Ukraine deal this week; Japan PM apparently resists constant concessions in trade talks with US.

Notes/observations

- In observance of Easter Monday, Europe’s principal stock exchanges remain closed until markets resume tomorrow. Vatican announced that Pope Francis— the first Latin American pontiff—had died at age 88 after a prolonged respiratory illness.

- US VP JD Vance arrived in India on for a four-day trip.

- Japan PM Ishiba said Japan won’t make unilateral concessions to U.S. tariff demands, views the negotiations as strategically important, and hopes they’ll serve as a model for global trade, while Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa on Friday admitted that Tokyo aims to clinch a deal quickly with further talks this month, warning that U.S. trade measures could weigh on domestic consumption.

- Fox Business’s Gasparino reported that, while unconfirmed and still fluid, White House sources say Treasury Secretary Bessent was nearing a significant trade deal—likely with Japan—with Commerce Secretary Lutnick (despite calls for his removal) and USTR Ambassador Greer also deeply involved, though the agreement now isn’t viewed as imminent.

- USD/JPY extended losses over 1% to lowest since Sept 2024, while USD/CHF traded at 10-year low; BOJ Gov Ueda said to travel to Washington DC, US on Apr 22-27th.

- Acting President South Korea Ha said the country won’t resist U.S. tariffs—acknowledging that Korea owes much of its growth to American aid, technology transfers, investment, and security—and is willing to drop non-tariff barriers as he enters talks with President Trump to seek “win-win” solutions.

- The U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed to eliminate the $800 de minimis duty-free exemption for China and Hong Kong exports as of May 2, 2025 at 00:01 ET, and in response DHL will suspend all B2C shipments to U.S. private individuals with a declared value over $800 effective April 21, 2025, citing longer customs clearance times.

- In an April 20th's Goldman Sachs note based on insights from Data Center World 2025, analysts say data-center demand should remain robust for years but question how long today’s rapid build-out can be sustained. Goldman Sachs warns that only truly heavy AI workloads (beyond chatbot-style use cases) will absorb this surge in capacity, and operators are split on whether to invest now in leading-edge platforms like NVIDIA’s Blackwell or wait for next-generation hardware amid economic and ordering uncertainties.

Asia

- Japan PM Ishiba: Japan won’t just keep conceding to US demands to reach a deal over tariffs; Reiterates sees trade talks with the US as 'important'; Japan-US trade talks could be 'model' for the world.

- Japan's Econ Revitalization Min and Trade Negotiator Akazawa: Want to reach agreement quickly; Confirms Japan aims to have further negotiations with US this month; Personal consumption could be pushed down by US trade policies.

- South Korea acting Pres Han: Will not fight US tariffs; Cites Korea owing historical debt to the US and is open to dropping non-tariff trade barriers.

- China MOFCOM: Reiterates firmly opposes any deal harming China's interests, vows to take countermeasures; responds to US coercing others to curb trade through tariffs.

- China state-backed funds cut off new investment in US private equity - FT.

- Reportedly Chinese ecommerce giants Alibaba, JD.com and Pinduoduo launching multibillion-dollar initiatives to help traditional exporters switch to domestic sales - FT.

- Reportedly Japan's ruling LDP party set to make an emergency proposal later on Monday, Apr 21st in the wake of the US tariffs, urging the govt to strengthen loan support for companies and boost domestic demand - press.

Americas

- Pres Trump: Since our announcement of LIBERATION DAY, many World Leaders and Business Executives have come to me asking for relief from Tariffs. It’s good to see that the World knows we are serious, because WE ARE!

- Reportedly Trump officials have suggested to Chinese diplomats that Foreign Min Wang Yi reach out to Sec of State Rubio; So far, China has refused to engage on this front - WSJ.

- Trump adviser Hassett said Trump is studying whether to fire Fed Chair Powell; The article mentions 'new legal analysis' regarding the topic – financial press.

- Fox's Gasparino: A Wall Street exec with ties to Trump White House says the word is that Treasury Sec Bessent is close to announcing a significant trade deal, likely to be with Japan.

- FOLLOW-UP: Fox's Gasparino: While there is progress on trade deal with Japan, deal isn’t seen as imminent.

Europe

- President Trump: Hopefully Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week; Both will then start to do big business with the US.

- Reportedly Ukraine in US proposal was offered to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and exclude itself from joining NATO - WSJ [**Note: A source close to the Ukrainian government also said it seemed Rubio's comments from Friday were aimed at pressing Ukraine].

- US reportedly offers to ease sanctions on Russia "in the event of a lasting ceasefire" in Ukraine peace plan and shared its framework with European allies - press.

Speakers

- Fed’s Daly (non-voter for 2025) reiterated may have to hold policy tighter for longer, may still adjust rates down; We do have to make gradual reductions in the interest rate, something like what we said in the SEP, in order to ensure that we don’t over-tighten the economy.

- ECB's Muller (Estonia): Should be cautious how tariffs affect inflation; German public spending could also boost inflation.

Economic data

- South Korea Apr 1-20 Exports Y/Y: -5.2% v 4.5% prior; Imports Y/Y: -11.8% v -1.4% prior.

- Indonesia Mar Trade Balance: $4.33B v $2.9Be; Exports Y/Y: +3.2% v -2.4%e.

- Japan March Tokyo Condominiums for Sale Y/Y: -9.8% v -2.4% prior.

Fixed income

- South Korea sells 5-year Bonds: Avg Yield: 2.440%.

- Bank of Korea (BOK) sells 3-month Monetary Stabilization Bonds (MSBs): Yield: 2.450%.

Looking ahead

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q4 Final GDP Annualized (3rd of 3 readings): No est v 2.0% prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Mar Leading Index: -0.4%e v -0.3% prior.

- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.7% prior.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Mar PPI Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior.

- 17:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence: No est v 84.2 prior.

- 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Trade Balance (NZD): No est v 0.5B prior; Exports: No est v 6.74B prior; Imports: No est v 6.23B prior.

TTN chart of the day: Trump's "Non-Tariff Cheating List" from Truth Social.