Lagarde quits early to speak on French politics as France’s economy shrinks 0.1%

EU mid-market update: AI spending continues to muster some risk off sentiment; Lagarde quits early to speak on French politics as France’s economy shrinks 0.1%; Microsoft returns to the bond market for $25B after Amazon’s FCF hits -$42B; Intel says memory prices will cut PC units another 10% in 2027.

The brief

- AI spending lost more investor patience overnight. Amazon’s negative FCF followed Alphabet’s worst day on record, and hyperscaler funding is moving into the credit market through Microsoft’s roughly $25B bond deal and Nvidia’s credit support for Nscale. Lagarde has now tied that issuance to the global long-end selloff. In Europe, France contracted in Q3 while inflation ran hot, widening the OAT-Bund spread, and Lagarde’s Feb 7 exit opens an ECB succession contest just as its spread backstop is being tested. With German CPIs softening, a December hike would favour Bunds over OATs and keep the euro weak against sterling. Energy supply is still tight: Gulf LNG, Russian diesel and low European gas storage keep pass-through live even as crude finds routes around Hormuz. The tail risks are US strike options on Iran, Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries, and the $6.3B Binance hack attributed to North Korea.

Observations in full

- Lagarde will leave the ECB on Feb 7, eight months early, and said the reason is to be free to speak on French politics because she “can’t remain neutral”. The exit lets EU leaders choose her successor while Macron still has a vote, before an April election in which Le Pen leads the polls. The ECB therefore spends the next three months led by a president who says she is not neutral on the country whose spread is the ECB’s main transmission risk. The successor comes as part of a package with two more board seats: Schnabel leaves on Jan 3 for the IMF and chief economist Lane’s term ends in May. La Repubblica reports Germany backs Klaas Knot, a pragmatic hawk, while Pablo Hernández de Cos is seen as the more dovish candidate. Whoever drafts the staff projections as chief economist may matter more for the rate path than the president. France released the macro backdrop this morning. Q3 GDP fell 0.1% against +0.1% expected, consumer spending fell 0.4% y/y, October CPI rose 3.4% against 3.3% and September PPI jumped to 6.8% y/y. Finance Minister Lescure said the economy has “ground to a halt” this year. The government is deploying 70,000 security personnel for Saturday’s cost-of-living protests. The OAT spread is back at 159bps from 154bps before the announcement, and the WEF board, which could name Lagarde its chair, meets on Monday.

- The ECB held unanimously at 2.50% after debating a hike, and Lagarde named hyperscaler bond issuance as one reason long-end yields are rising globally. She said the rise in long-term yields worldwide reflects inflation “and also debt issuance by hyperscalers”. The same day Microsoft filed for its first US investment-grade bond deal since 2017: 10 tranches, reportedly about $25B, one day after CFO Hood said Microsoft would “access additional sources of funding”. The statement said energy prices have risen beyond the September baseline, that the ECB is not seeing “material” second-round effects, and that wage trackers point to 2.5-2.8% for the rest of 2026. Lagarde said underlying inflation will “take particular standing” in December. Reports say policymakers still expect a December hike followed by a pause, and Simkus said holding “doesn’t mean no more hikes”. On France she repeated that the ECB has instruments if transmission is threatened and that it watches the whole curve. Euro-area data before today’s flash GDP and CPI point both ways. Spain’s CPI is 4.9%, Belgium’s 5.3% and German import prices rose 10.4% y/y, but Saxony’s CPI fell to 2.8% from 3.4% on a 0.2% monthly decline, a possible downside signal for the German print. Dutch Q3 GDP rose 0.6% against 0.3% expected and Spain’s 0.6%, while euro-area economic sentiment slipped to 96.9.

- AI capex has outgrown even Amazon’s cash flow, and Google had its worst session on record. Amazon fell 6% after hours. Trailing free cash flow swung to -$42.4B from +$14.8B a year earlier, on a $94.8B increase in property and equipment spending. 2026 capex is about $220B and will be “meaningfully more” in 2027. AWS revenue rose 39% with a 38.7% margin and a $578B backlog. Bedrock token volume grew nearly 17x, inference is “well over half” of AWS AI revenue, and external Trainium sales start in late 2027. Alphabet fell 12%, its worst day on record, and Caterpillar 8% despite a record $78B backlog with power-generation sales up 75%. ServiceNow and Fortinet each lost about a quarter of their value, and Twilio, Roblox and Pinterest fell after hours. Democratic lawmakers said they will refuse to pay for an “AI-bubble bailout”. Bessent said wider AI spreads are not a problem, yet the three largest cloud providers are now funding capex with bonds, inventory or negative free cash flow, and Microsoft is pricing its deal into Gundlach’s warning that “all spreads are widening”. Treasuries still rallied: the 7-year cleared at 4.894% against 5.085% at the prior auction and the 10-year is at 4.94%. European chip stocks are about -2.5% premarket, with ASM, Infineon, Siltronic and ASML all lower, and Siemens Energy is -1.5%.

- Intel says memory prices are now shrinking the PC market. Intel fell 17% after hours on Q4 EPS guidance of $0.25 against $0.42 expected and revenue of $15-16B against $16.8B. Management sees PC units down about 12% in 2026, more than 20% in H2, and another 10% in 2027 as memory costs squeeze IT budgets and OEMs cut inventory. Client revenue is guided down more than 20% sequentially. Intel’s Fab 28 in Israel was shut for about two weeks, costing roughly $300M of revenue in each of Q4 and Q1, almost all in 10nm server parts. Server CPU units are expected to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027, but supply is constrained into 2028, and Intel expects negative free cash flow in 2027 as equipment orders rose nearly 40% q/q. Sandisk shows where the margin went: gross margin of 85%, data-centre revenue up 61% q/q, consumer revenue down 29%, and an 8-for-1 split. The memory makers are taking margin from the rest of the chain, and Microsoft’s mid-30s% Windows OEM decline guided on Wednesday shows the same squeeze. Kospi fell 3.5% to 5,730 after a downside sidecar, and the Nikkei fell 2.1%.

- Binance has lost about $6.3B, roughly four times the previous record crypto theft, and the recovery so far came from the centralised stablecoin issuers able to freeze tokens. The company said an attacker got into a service container and moved funds out across ten blockchains, most of it within about 20 minutes, according to TRM Labs. TRM attributes the attack with high confidence to TraderTraitor, a North Korean state hacking unit, on the same day Pyongyang fired ballistic missiles and Kim called for “absolute superiority” in drones. The previous record was Bybit’s $1.5B in February 2025. Stablecoin issuers froze about $2.67B: Tether, Circle, Ripple and World Liberty Financial, the last linked to the Trump family. Arbitrum’s security council also froze 8,426 ETH, so the industry’s main defence was the companies and governance bodies able to block tokens centrally. The attacker still holds about 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC, worth roughly $2.4B and beyond any issuer’s reach. Those coins will hang over ETH in particular until they are laundered or sold. Binance has pledged to cover all losses, but its $1.2B insurance fund is well short of the roughly $3.3B it says is still unfrozen, and CZ said the final figure “might be a bit higher”. Deposits and withdrawals are suspended, and co-CEO Yi He expects withdrawals to resume within 48 hours. That delay ties up capital on the exchange that carries the largest share of crypto derivatives volume. Bitcoin fell to a six-week low of $77,646. Coinbase said it is blocking transfers to the compromised wallets after reporting a 10% q/q drop in spot volumes, offset by prediction markets running at more than $200M a year. Japan’s SBI said its exposure is limited. The theft continues the wave of attacks on Asian finance in recent weeks, after the GMO Internet ransomware hit Japanese FX brokers and Mirae Asset was hacked, and it comes as Binance is reported to be preparing an IPO.

- Nvidia is moving from guaranteeing chip demand to funding the power behind it. The Information reports Nvidia is discussing “billions” of credit support for Nscale, covering power infrastructure and construction of a West Virginia AI campus Anthropic plans to use. Nscale is separately in talks to sell Anthropic about 460MW of compute in a deal worth roughly $45B. That is close to the up to $44.6B Nscale services commitment through 2033 in Anthropic’s S-1, so whether this is a new contract or the same one being documented decides whether the exposure doubles. The economics work out to about $98M of contract value per megawatt, or roughly $14B a year per gigawatt if it runs through 2033. That sits near the $16B of annual revenue Oracle attached to its illustrative 1GW project. Vendor support for AI capacity now covers every layer. Broadcom underwrites rack residual values to 72.5% of unpaid rent, Nvidia has committed to buy up to $6.3B of CoreWeave compute, and now Nvidia is lending against power infrastructure. That last layer is the hardest to repossess, since substations and grid connections cannot be resold the way GPUs can. It also shows where the bottleneck sits. Earlier this month Microsoft walked away from Nscale’s Loughton site because power was not due until the 2030s, and on Wednesday it said third-party GPU capacity deliveries had slipped into H2 FY27. A neocloud that needs its chip supplier to finance the substation fits Musk’s description of operators without revenue independent of AI, even with a frontier lab signed as the customer. For Nvidia, the credit support protects GPU demand from a customer the debt market is reluctant to fund on its own terms.

- US Q3 data showed fast growth and a GDP price index that does not match core PCE. Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualised against 3.2% expected, with consumption up 3.8%. The GDP price index rose only 2.2% against 3.2% expected, while Q3 core PCE ran at 2.5%. September core PCE was 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, August was revised up to 0.3%, and the Dallas Fed trimmed mean jumped to 2.8% annualised from 2.0%. Real growth was flattered by a weak deflator, while the inflation measures the Fed targets accelerated. Hassett said growth is “headed toward 4%”, Trump said the Fed “hates to cut”, and GDPNow opens Q4 at 3.2%. Claims fell to 194k. BofA card spending accelerated to +6.0% y/y, with lower-income households still outspending higher-income ones. The Fed’s December decision now rests on October CPI and payrolls, with the midterms on Tuesday.

- The BOJ held 8-1 and almost tripled the pace at which it will sell its ETFs. Takata dissented for a hike to 1.50% while Tamura did not. The BOJ said underlying inflation “has reached levels consistent with” the 2% target and raised its FY27 core-core forecast to 2.7%. From January it will sell ETFs at about ¥860B a year at book value, against ¥330B before, cutting the time to clear its holdings to 43 years from 122. Ueda said December is live and that the policy rate is still below neutral. Markets price more than 80% for a December hike. Separately, Takaichi will raise the target pump price by ¥5 a litre each month from December, unwinding the fuel subsidy, while the BOJ estimates the proposed food tax cut would take 1.3 points off FY27 core CPI. Tokyo CPI came in at 2.8%, September retail sales fell 0.7% m/m and industrial production rose 2.2%.

- Moscow and Kyiv have both adjusted their oil exports and strikes to suit Washington before the midterms. The WSJ reported Ukraine paused strikes on Russian refineries early last week under US pressure, and the pause is expected to last beyond the midterms. Russia is reportedly extending its diesel export ban to the end of 2026 while using individual companies to meet “US obligations”, so it bans diesel exports except to the US. In the Gulf, the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries, and UKMTO reported an incident 25nm from Khasab inside Hormuz. The WSJ said Admiral Cooper, Hegseth and Gen. Caine briefed Trump on attack options, while Iran confirmed receiving Vance’s letter and insisted on its “7 conditions”. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran overnight, and QatarEnergy said it could restore full LNG output within a week of a peace deal if ships are available. Governments are drawing on reserves in parallel: EU members confirmed a 42.6M bbl release, half of it diesel, and companies borrowed 16.75M bbl of the 17M offered from the US SPR. Brent is at $111.5, and ANZ raised its end-year forecast to $105 from $95.

- Cross-asset: Lagarde’s Feb 7 exit to campaign in French politics puts the ECB succession package of Knot or de Cos and the chief economist seat into OAT, BTP and Bund pricing, as France contracts and protests resume Saturday. Hyperscaler funding is now a rates story: Microsoft’s $25B deal, Amazon’s -$42B trailing free cash flow and Alphabet’s TPU inventory feed the long-end issuance Lagarde blamed for rising global yields. Memory pricing is moving margin from PCs to Sandisk and SK hynix while Intel guides PC units down again. The BOJ’s faster ETF sales add slow supply of Japanese equities as Nikkei and Kospi sell off. Russian diesel now flows only to the US and Ukraine’s refinery strikes are paused, while Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries keep Brent near $111. Today brings euro-area, German and Italian flash GDP and CPI, Canadian GDP, the Chicago PMI and China’s PMIs tonight. Next week has the WEF board on Monday, the US midterms and RBA on Tuesday and the BoE on Thursday.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI underperforming -3.5%. EU indices +0.1% to -0.9%. US futures +0.1% to -2.2%. Gold -0.8%, DXY -0.3%; Commodity: Brent +1.7%, WTI +1.6%; Crypto: BTC -3.2%, ETH -4.1%.

Asia

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its Target Rate unchanged at 1.25% (as expected) with vote being 8-1 (Takata again dissenting in favor of a 25bps hike); Staff Projections confirmed underlying inflation had reached target.

- Japan Oct Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7%e; CPI (ex-fresh Food) Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e; CPI (ex-fresh Food/energy) Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.7%e.

- Japan Sept Jobless Rate: 2.4% v 2.5%e.

- Japan Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.3%e.

- Japan Sept Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 2.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.4%e.

- Australia Q3 PPI Q/Q: 1.1% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6% prior.

- Australia Sept Private Sector Credit M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.4% prior.

- New Zealand Oct ANZ Consumer Confidence: 96.2 v 97.6 prior.

- South Korea Sept Industrial Production M/M: 8.0% v 3.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.6%e.

- Singapore Sept Unemployment Rate: % v 2.0% prior.

Europe

- UK Oct Lloyds Business Barometer: 47% v 41% prior.

- ECB Policymakers said to still anticipate a rate hike in Dec followed by a pause.

Energy

- Russia said to have struck military and energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk region (**Note: with vote being 8-1.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.36% at 10,761.13, DAX -0.13% at 26,006.93, CAC-40 +0.18% at 7,984.68, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 18,762.53, FTSE MIB -0.61% at 49,696.50, SMI +0.29% at 14,799.30, S&P 500 Futures -0.86%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities slip with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.6%, as Alphabet’s revenue miss and swing to negative free cash flow, Amazon’s trailing 12-month free cash flow of negative $42.4B on Q3 capex of $77.3B, and Intel’s below-consensus Q4 revenue forecast rekindle fears that debt-funded AI buildouts are straining the sector, a concern Lagarde amplified on Thursday by linking rising global long-end yields partly to hyperscaler bond issuance, while Barclays was reported to be seeking default protection on more than $10B of AI infrastructure debt. The semiconductor complex bears the brunt, with ASML and ASM International down about 5% each and Infineon down 4%, alongside Airtel Africa down 6.5% as capex more than doubled to $657M and the mobile-money margin fell 287 bps, miners Hochschild and Fresnillo down 4.5% as gold weakens on higher oil and firm US inflation raising Fed hike odds, and NatWest down 3% on unchanged tangible NAV and lower trading income. Against that, Sanofi and Gerresheimer rise 5% on a Q3 guidance upgrade and a prelim revenue beat, BT and Bayer gain 4.5% on a reported Virgin Media O2 network deal and a first post-Supreme Court Roundup trial win, and Tesco and Ahold Delhaize add 1.5% after Ahold agreed to buy Tesco’s Czech and Slovak businesses for €1.7B, with the FTSE 100 up 0.4% and the CAC 40 up 0.2% on the support. The STOXX 600 remains on track for its best month since June at about +2.2%, helped by its heavier weighting in energy, defence and banks, with Q3 earnings seen growing 23.6% (9.8% ex-energy, where profits are up 139%), while the ECB’s hawkish hold at 2.50% leaves roughly two-in-three odds of a December hike and Lagarde’s announced February 2027 exit adds succession uncertainty to a month that saw a 625.5 STOXX 600 low on Oct. 8 and French yields above 5%.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Adidas [ADS.DE] +1.5% (JPMorgan reiterated Overweight and raised its price target to €230 following the Q3 update).

Helathcare: Sanofi [SAN.FR] +5.0% (Q3 sales rose 14.3% at CER and business EPS 19.6%; FY guidance upgraded to low-teens sales growth and mid-teens EPS growth), Gerresheimer [GXI.DE] +5.0% (Preliminary Q3 revenue rose 8% to €605m, adjusted EBITDA reached €103m and management expects a stronger Q4), Bayer [BAYN.DE] +4.5% (Monsanto won its first US Roundup cancer trial since the Supreme Court ruling, improving sentiment around the litigation overhang), AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +3.0% (Q3 revenue rose 7% at CER and core EPS increased 19%, with FY2026 guidance reaffirmed).

Technology: Capgemini [CAP.FR] +1.5% (Q3 revenue grew 11.7% at constant currencies; FY growth guidance was raised to 9.0–9.5% from 8.5–9.0%), ASML [ASML.NL] -5.0%, ASM International [ASM.NL] -5.0%, Infineon [IFX.DE] -4.0% (AI-spending-return concerns deepened after US mega-cap results, triggering a broad European semiconductor unwind).

Telecom: BT Group [BT.A.UK] +4.5% (Virgin Media O2 is reportedly nearing a deal to use BT’s broadband network, potentially adding a major wholesale customer), Airtel Africa [AAF.UK] -6.5% (Strong H1 revenue and EBITDA growth was outweighed by capex more than doubling to $657m and a 287bp decline in the reported mobile-money margin).

Energy: BP [BP.UK] +1.5% (Q3 underlying replacement-cost profit reached $8.46bn, operating cash flow was $14.8bn and net debt fell to $13.87B).

Consumer staples: Tesco [TSCO.UK] +1.5%, Ahold Delhaize [AD.NL] +1.5% (Ahold agreed to acquire Tesco’s Czech and Slovak businesses for €1.7bn, crystallising value for Tesco and adding regional scale for Ahold).

Industrials/defence: SPIE [SPIE.FR] +2.5% (Q3 revenue rose 13.7%, organic growth accelerated to 4.7% and the FY outlook was confirmed).

Financials: NatWest [NWG.UK] -3.0% (Higher net interest income failed to offset unchanged tangible NAV, lower markets trading income and an unrevised outlook).

Materials: Hochschild Mining [HOC.UK] -4.5%, Fresnillo [FRES.UK] -4.5% (Gold weakened as higher oil prices and firm US inflation increased expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike), Anglo American [AAL.UK] -2.5%, Glencore [GLEN.UK] -1.5% (Copper declined as the technology selloff and higher oil prices reduced global risk appetite).

Speakers

- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) raised the 2026 HICP (EU Harmonized CPI) from 2.7% to 3.0% and raised the 2027 HICP (EU Harmonized CPI) from 2.2% to 2.6% (both above ECB target of 2%). Forecasts raised the 2026 GDP growth outlook from 0.6% to 1.0% and raised the 2027 GDP growth from 1.2% to 1.3%.

- Bank of England (BOE) Oct Decision Maker Panel (DMP) Survey raised the 1-year ahead CPI from 3.3% to 3.4% (v 3.5%e).

- ECB's Nagel (Germany): ECB will act decisively if necessary; medium-term price expectations must stay firmly anchored.

- (EU) ECB's Rehn (Finland): Outlook for both growth and inflation remain uncertain.

- ECB's Simkus (Lithuania) noted that holding rates did not mean no more hikes to come.

- ECB's Kaasik (Estonia): Inflation is not yet broad-based; Reasonable to wait for more data.

- ECB’s Dolenc (acting Slovenia member) noted that the current higher energy shock had yet to translate into broader price pressures. Inflation could stay above target in the coming years.

- BOJ Gov Ueda post rate decision press conference noted that was up to Japanese govt to declare an end to deflation. No comments on reviewing govt/BOJ joint statement. Needed to look at cumulative rate hikes and financial conditions in deciding monetary policy. To continue considering rate hikes at each meeting (including Dec). To adjust at the right time so risks did not manifest. Still a gap between neutral rate and policy rate and want to bring rate to neutral level appropriately.

- Qatari mediators returned to Iran today as part of effort to reach a US-Iran deal, mediation talks have been coordinated with US.

Currencies

- USD was softer against the major pairs as US Treasury yields moved lower. Dealers noted that results from Google parent Alphabet raised fresh concerns about the payoff from investments in artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

- The week saw the major central banks (Fed, ECB & BOJ) keep rates on hold, but tightening cycle would likely continue. Dealers noted that the big question as 2027 approached was whether or not see more hikes if the inflation stayed elevated.

- EUR/USD edging back towards the 1.12 level.

- USD/JPY lower to test 157.40 as BOJ Gov Ueda noted that it would continue consider rate hikes at each meeting (including Dec. BOJ did keep its policy steady (as expected) during the Asian session.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.35%, France 10-year OAT at 4.94% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.28%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.93%; 10-year JGB: 2.76%.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Sept GDP Indicator Y/Y: 2.0 v 1.3% prior.

- (FI) Finland Q3 GDP Indicator Q/Q: 0.5 v 0.9% prior.

- (FI) Finland Sept Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.0% prior.

- (FR) France Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.3%e.

- (FR) France Sept Consumer Spending M/M: -0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v 0.4%e.

- (DE) Germany Sept Import Price Index M/M: 2.1% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: 10.4% v 10.3%e.

- (UK) Oct Nationwide House Price Index M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e.

- 03:00 (NO) Norway Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.0% v 2.0% prior; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 2.0% v 2.0% prior.

- (DK) Denmark Sept Unemployment Rate: 2.7% v 2.7% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.1% prior.

- (TH) Thailand Sept Current Account Balance: -$1.6B v +$1.7Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): $0.5B v $3.1B prior; Trade Account Balance: $0.5B v $1.8B prior; Exports Y/Y: 23.5% v 25.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 50.1% v 31.3% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1,5% v 1.9%e.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai Deliverable Copper Inventories (SHFE): 44.6K v 54.4K tons prior.

- (TH) Thailand Foreign Reserves w/e Oct 23rd: $274.4B v $277.1B prior.

- (FR) France Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.3%e.

- (FR) France Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e.

- (FR) France Sept PPI M/M: 1.7% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.8% v 4.8% prior.

- (FR) France Q3 Preliminary Private Sector Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1% prior.

- (ES) Spain Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e.

- (ES) Spain Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.9%e.

- (ES) Spain Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.9%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e.

- (CH) Swiss Oct KOF Leading Indicator: 107.6 v 108.1e.

- (AT) Austria Q3 GDP Q/Q: +0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.8% prior.

- (AT) Austria Sept PPI M/M: 1.2% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 4.7% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Oct 23rd (RUB): 23.03T v 23.07T prior.

- (TR) Sept Foreign Tourist Arrivals Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0% prior.

- (TW) Taiwan Q3 Advance GDP (1st of 3 readings) Y/Y: 14.4% v 12.0%e.

- (NL) Netherlands Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.3%e.

- (PL) Poland Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.7%e.

- (HK) Hong Kong Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.5% v 9.9% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.5% v 9.9% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.7% prior.

- (DE) Germany Oct Net Unemployment Change: +4.0K v +5.0Ke; Claims Rate: 6.4% v 6.4%e.

- (ES) Spain Aug Current Account Balance: €5.1B v €5.9B prior.

- (DE) Germany Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.2%e; GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e.

- (DE) Germany Oct CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.2% v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.3% prior.

- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Hesse M/M: -0.1% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.4% prior.

- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Bavaria M/M: % v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: % v 3.2% prior.

- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.3% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.6% prior.

- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Saxony M/M: -0.2% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.4% prior.

- (DE) Germany Oct; CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.0% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9% prior.

- (IT) Italy Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e.

- (NO) Norges Bank Net FX transactions (NOK): 176M v 176M prior.

- (IS) Iceland Sept Final Trade Balance (ISK): -44.9B v -45.7B prelim.

- (CZ) Czech Sept M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.7% v 5.5% prior.

- (PT) Portugal Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR330B vs. INR330B indicated in 2029, 2033 and 2056 bonds (4 tranches).

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK340M in 1-month and 3-month bills.

Looking ahead

- (MX) Mexico Sept Public Balance (MXN): No est v -739.0B prior (no set time).

- 06:00 (EU) Eurozone Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) Eurozone Sept Unemployment Rate: 6.4%e v 6.4% prior.

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.9% prior.

- 06:00 (GR) Greece Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.4% prior.

- 06:00 (GR) Greece Aug Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: No est v 6.6% prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 4.2% prior.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3%e v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 4.2% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing.

- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) announcements on upcoming issuance.

- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:30 (IN) India Sept YTD Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 7.102T prior.

- 07:00 (IT) Italy Sept Hourly Wages M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior.

- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior.

- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior.

- 07:00 (UK) DMO to sell £5.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£1.0B, £2.0B and £2.0B respectively).

- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e Oct 23rd: No est v $721.0B prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Trade Balance (ZAR): 16.4Be v 20.5B prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): -23.2Be v -29.1B prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.1% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Sept National Unemployment Rate: 5.2%e v 5.3% prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.4% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.8%e v -5.7% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -0.8%e v -2.6% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 369.5K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI): 0.8%e v 0.9% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug GDP M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.4% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept GDP Advance Estimate M/M: No est v 0.2% prior.

- 09:00 (DE) Germany Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.3% prior.

- 09:00 (DE) Germany Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.3% prior.

- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announcement on upcoming issuance.

- 09:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 09:45 (US) Oct Chicago Purchase Managers Index (PMI): 56.1e v 58.8 prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 7.62T prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Sept National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.4% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 9.1%e v 9.1% prior.

- 12:00 (US) Fed’s Daly.

- 12:10 (IE) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist).

- 12:30 (US) Fed’s Musalem.

- 13:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Moody’s on EFSF, DBRS on Spain).

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data.

- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 12.25%.

- 21:30 (CN) China Oct (Govt Official) Manufacturing PMI: 49.9e v 50.1 prior; Non-manufacturing PMI: 50.0e v 50.2 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 50.7 prior.

Weekend data

- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Trade Balance: $38.3Be v $50.0B prior (revised from $49.9B); Exports Y/Y: 89.4%e v 83.7% prior (revised from 83.5%); Imports Y/Y: 39.9%e v 26.0% prior.