|

Elliott Waves on USD/NOK, opportunities to sell after rally

USDNOK was trading higher in the last quarter of 2024, mainly driven by a strong USD after Trump won the US elections. However, after Trump took office, this dynamic reversed due to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" impact—similar to what we observed in 2016/2017, when the dollar also turned sharply lower in January following Trump's victory.

Looking at current price action on the USDNOK daily chart, the recent sharp decline appears impulsive, coming down from a new high. This strongly suggests that an important top could be in place near 11.50, opening the door for further weakness. Although there is some swing support at 10.38, it may only trigger a temporary fourth-wave rally, which in my opinion, could represent an attractive opportunity on the short side after a bounce back to the 10.60/10.80 area. The invalidation level for this bearish outlook is at 11.07.

Chart

Get Full Access To Our Premium Elliott Wave Analysis For 14 Days. Click here.


Get Full Access To Our Premium Elliott Wave Analysis For 14 Days. Click here.

Author

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Wavetraders

Experience Grega is based in Slovenia and has been in the Forex market since 2003.

More from Gregor Horvat
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD: Bulls pray for a dovish Fed

EUR/USD has finally taken a breather after a pretty energetic climb. The pair broke above 1.1680 in the second half of the week, reaching its highest levels in around two months before running into some selling pressure. Even so, it has gained almost two cents from the late-November dip just below 1.1500 the figure.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold: Bullish momentum fades despite broad USD weakness

After rising more than 3.5% in the previous week, Gold has entered a consolidation phase and fluctuated at around $4,200. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and revised Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the dot plot, could trigger the next directional move in XAU/USD. 

Week ahead: Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low. Dollar weakness could linger; both the aussie and the yen best positioned to gain further. Gold and oil eye Ukraine-Russia developments; a peace deal remains elusive.

Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.