No more rate cuts? Who're they kidding?

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Yesterday, was a holiday in the U.S. for President's Day... When I was a kid, we celebrated Lincoln' birthday on Feb 12, and Washington's birthday on the 22nd... But then some knucklehead in Gov't thought it was wise to lump them together... I still don't like it, didn't like it then, and don't like it now! These two presidents were icons at their time, and still are in my mind... Van Morrison greets me this morning with his great/ mega hit song: Moondance.

Well, the metals had to go through yet another takedown by the SPTs on Thursday, last week. Gold was sold by $100 and Silver by $8.47... It was a real ugly day for the metals, as they headed toward the weekend on a sour note. 

The news around the metals selling was a stupid so-called letter that Bloomberg got a hold of from Russia to the U.S. that called for Russia to come crawling back to the U.S.  Really? People believed this? I shake my head at this idea that Russia is ready to concede, to the US. 

The prompt from the SPTs in reality was the STUPID CPI showed that consumer inflation had dropped to 2.4% from 2.9%... The reason for the drop was cheaper gas prices.... Really, they hung their hats on that? The report showed that food and shelter had gained in costs... I don't know where the propeller heads that calculate CPI found their gas cheaper, but I haven't seen gas prices dropping enough to warrant a .5% drop in inflation.

Gold & Silver fought back on Friday, and Gold gained $120 to end the week at $5,043, and Silver gained $2.13 to end the week at $77.57... Silver has definitely been the whipping boy these days.

A quick look at Ed Steer's Saturday letter where he posts the days of production needed to cover the short trades in each metal, tells me that the short position in Silver is falling... I mentioned last week that it was down considerably from the days when it would have taken 185 days of production to cover the short positions. Well, the number of days fell another 7 days last week, in Silver and 17 in Gold... They are heading in the right direction, just slow as molasses.

The price of Oil dropped on a Friday for the fist time in the last 3 weeks, as the Oil traders have given up the ghost on the U.S. attacking Iran after the markets close on Friday. Oil ended the week trading with a $63 handle.

But the bond traders didn't get the message about the U.S. not attacking Iran, for they bought bonds hand over fist, moving the yield on the 10—year to drop to 4.05%... I'm sure the Fed Heads were in buying the bond doing their "yield control" And they were left off the memo list of those who got the note about inflation falling... Either that, or, they are jaded like me, and didn't pay any attention to the lower Stupid CPI print!

The dollar ended the week at 1,181, so it was basically flat on the day... The data that day had a lot to do with the dollar not getting sold, as the rate cut bugs were sent back to the woodwork, and now the markets think that there will be no more rate cuts this year... I guess, the bond boys didn't see that report either, as they bought bonds as if there was going to be another rate cut.

Yesterday, with the U.S. markets closed, the dollar got bought some more and really is getting on my nerves, as the dollar bugs are really celebrating the idea of no more rate cuts... The BBDXY gained 2 index points yesterday and finished the day at 1,182... Gold & Silver were subjected to short selling yesterday and with the thought of no more rate cuts, the metals were in trouble all day even with the U.S. closed... Gold lost $49 and ended the day at $4,992, and Silver lost 74-cents to close at $76.58. The day had all the markings of an engineered takedown under the cover of no more rate cuts... I shake my head in disgust at these guys... They are dastardly dudes, doing dastardly things.

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar was bought some more, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,184... This buying because of the idea of no more rate cuts, has got to come to an end, soon... In my opinion, because the data this week from the U.S. is going to be awful, and will point to more rate cuts again... Gold &Silver are getting sold short again this morning, as long as the dollar is rallying on the no rate cuts idea, the short sellers will take that as a carte blanche to sell short some more, and they are doing just that! Gold is down $52 and Silver is down $1.75 to start our day today... SERENITY NOW!

The price of Oil is seeing the other side of "attack" and is getting sold. Oil starts today trading with a $63 handle... The bond boys are really jumping on the no rate cuts bandwagon... You take their buying, and the buying of all the stock jockeys that are fleeing stocks like rats on a sinking ship, and you have the 10-year trading with a 4.03% yield this morning.

Circling the wagons regarding the dollar... it too also saw some buying from the made-up BLS Jobs report... There's no way that the ADP reports 22,000 jobs created, and the BLS reports 130,000, that's too big of a discrepancy, don't you think? So, either the ADP is cutting jobs from their initial report, or the BLS is adding jobs to their initial report... I know what flag I'm pinning my colors to! And with that, I'll confidently say that the dollar will return to its underlying weak trend and get sold.... soon, Of course, I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

And circling the wagons again on metals this from yahoo.com/ finance: "The sudden sell-off has prompted analysts and investors to question whether a broader repricing of hard assets is unfolding.

The metals’ retreat comes amid intensifying economic stress. Over the past three weeks, 18 US companies with liabilities exceeding $50 million have filed for bankruptcy.

Notably, this is the fastest pace since the pandemic and approaches levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed said in a press release that household debt has reached a record $18.8 trillion, with mortgages, auto loans, credit card balances, and student loan balances all at historic highs.

Serious credit card delinquencies climbed to 12.7% in Q4 2025, the highest since 2011, with younger households under particular strain.

Such conditions typically emerge late in the economic cycle, often preceding policy interventions like rate cuts or liquidity injections.

Bitcoin has also remained under pressure, falling to the $65,000 range as the pioneer crypto lags both equities and traditional safe-haven assets over the past few months.

While digital assets often present as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, recent trends suggest they are not yet playing that role effectively in this cycle."

Chuck again... Another nail in the coffin for the STPs, eh? Things look pretty awful in the U.S. right now, don't you agree? And therefore, Gold should be ratcheting higher in my opinion.

Silver has really been quite volatile in the recent months... This has a lot to do with Silver's lack of liquidity... There's just not enough physical Silver out there, and unless the authorities want to raid the ETFs, Silver will remain short... So, you have the SPTs and their short positions that come due, well, the rules say that they need to deliver what they sold short... But, the rules people look the other way, and allow the SPTs to just roll them over and prolong the misery... My friend, Dennis Miller, and I talked on the phone a couple of weeks ago, regarding what could knock Silver down... Well, this liquidity has been really weighing on Silver... the demand for physical Silver is still there, but the actual Siver isn't.

This should mean that the price of Silver goes to the moon, but with all the short paper trades outstanding, and more to come, Silver will have to work very diligently to get back to $100...  I don't doubt that it will, I'm just saying that along the way there will be times when you, as an owner of Silver, might feel that this is it... Time to sell... But what do you want to sell for? Do you need it as an emergency? This is the time when you should look to buy more.... I'm just saying.

Ed Steer tells me in his letter that the open interest in Silver isn't keeping up... That's usually time to get out, but I think that the lack of Open Interest is because of Silver's volatility; investors are scared to make a real investment in such a volatile asset... Their fear will subside, in my humble opinion, and when it does, then Silver can finally move forward again.

I've carried on much too long this morning... So, let' go to the Big Finish.

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had some doozy reports, some lies, some cooking of the books and so on, and this week's Data Cupboard has little in the way of real market moving data... We will see the Dec (delayed) print of Durable Goods Orders, which should show a negative for the month (factory Orders for the month were awful) So, the dollar is on its own this week to work through the problems it has weighing on it.

To recap... The metals saw yet another takedown on Thursday last week, but on Friday they hitched up their boots and came back strongly... There was some news about a letter that Bloomberg got ahold of from Russia, but to Chuck it was not real.... But it played havoc with the metals on Thursday... The Stupid CPI showed that inflation had grown 2.4%, down from 2.9% the previous month... Chuck doesn't believe the report... Everything he buys is more expensive! And Chuck gives us his thoughts on Silver.

Here's your snippet: "Foreclosure filings remain elevated across the country, up 32% from a year ago. This includes default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. There were a total of 40,534 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings—with Delaware, Nevada, and Florida topping the list.

"Foreclosure activity in January rose year over year for the 11th straight month, continuing a trend that has now carried into early 2026,” says Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data.

Foreclosure starts were up 26% from a year ago, while completed foreclosures increased 59%.

Nationwide, 1 in every 3,547 housing units had a foreclosure filing in January 2026, according to the firm's latest report.

"Although foreclosure activity has been rising steadily, overall levels remain well below historic peaks, suggesting that most homeowners are still on stable footing even as higher housing costs and broader economic pressures create stress in certain pockets of the market," adds Barber.

ATTOM’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: default and notice of default; notice of foreclosure; and real estate–owned or REO properties, defined as properties that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank."

Chuck again... yeah, like I said above, I see a trend here... just like the trend I saw in 2003, when I wrote in a white paper that the housing market was heading in the wrong direction... 4 years later, Armageddon, in housing... I'm just saying.

Market Prices 2/17/2026: American Style: A$ .7062, kiwi .6035, C$ .7328, euro 1.1829, sterling 1.35569, Swiss $1.2975, European Style: rand 16.0413, krone 9.5237, SEK 8.9958, forint 319.45, zloty 3.5612, koruna 20.4695, RUB 76.82, yen 153.11, sing 1.2632, HKD 7.8154, INR 90.67, China 6.9048, peso 17.18, BRL 5.2231, BBDXY 1.184, Dollar Index 97.24, Oil $63.89, 10-year 4.03%, Silver $75.04, Platinum $2.2010.00, Palladium $1,692, Copper $5.75, and Gold... $4,942.

That's it for today... Did you miss me yesterday? OK, something's happening at home and we had to come back early... We came back on Saturday, so I'll be writing as usual but from home this week, with no Pfennig on Thursday, as it'll be an infusion day... Someone asked the other day how I was feeling, and I replied, "I haven't been subjected to an infusion for over a month now, so if I were feeling any better, I wouldn't know what to do!" Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song, and my fave Chicago song: Hard Habit To Break... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!