EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears came out and look for levels sub-1.1800

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1824

• Germany confirmed that the January HICP rose by 2.1% YoY in January.
• The US private sector added an average of 10,250 jobs per week at the end of January.
• EUR/USD nears 1.1800 with an increased bearish strength, aiming for 1.1740.

The US Dollar (USD) is in better shape on Tuesday, grinding higher against most major rivals across the FX board. The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.1820 region, falling to its lowest in over a week. The USD benefits from a cautious market mood that follows the long weekend in the United States (US).

Meanwhile, market participants await headlines related to US-Iran nuclear talks that took place in Geneva. Ahead of the meeting of top representatives from both countries, US President Trump said Iranians are “bad negotiators” and hoped they would be more “reasonable” in talks.

Other than that, Germany confirmed that the January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.1% YoY in January, as previously estimated. The country also released the February ZEW Survey, which showed that Economic Sentiment in the country contracted to 58.3 from 59.6 in January. The assessment of the current situation improved to -65.9 from -72.7 in the same period.

Across the pond, the US published the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, which showed that, for the four weeks ending January 31, US private employers added an average of 10,250 jobs per week. The US will later publish the February New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, while a couple of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will be on the wires.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

Bears are taking the lead, according to the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD trades below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has turned lower and now sits beneath the 100-period SMA, flagging increased near-term momentum. The 200-period SMAs still edge higher, below the current level, providing dynamic support at 1.1776. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator aims modestly lower below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) heads firmly south at around 32, favouring an immediate downside extension. Initial resistance aligns with the 20 SMA at 1.1858, while a break below the mentioned 200-period SMA opens the door for a steeper decline towards 1.1740.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD extends its slide below a bullish 20-day SMA, which now caps advances at around 1.1850, while the longer SMAs remain far below the current level. Finally, technical indicators hover within negative levels, but with uneven strength, hinting at an upcoming slide without confirming it.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)