AUD/USD analysis: Australian trade balance and retail sales up next

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7267

  • Aussie demand dented by falling equities and poor Q3 GDP figures.
  • AUD/USD holding above 0.7250, bearish below it, bullish if it quickly regains 0.7300.

The AUD/USD pair traded as low as 0.7259 this Wednesday, as AUD bulls were spooked by soft local data and persistent weakness in equities' markets. The third quarter GDP resulted at 0.3%, well below the market's forecast of 0.6% and the previous 0.9%, the slowest pace of growth for the Australian economy in two years. The annual rate of growth, shrunk to 2.8% vs. a previous 3.1%, this last, downwardly revised from 3.4%, The AIG Performance of Services Index matched its previous reading in November with 55.1. The soft tone of Asian and European indexes maintained the Aussie subdued throughout the day. Australia will release its October Trade Balance at the beginning of the day, foreseen posting a large surplus of 3,200M. The AUD/USD pair could recover on the back of such solid figures, particularly if the export/import data with China improve. October Retail Sales will also be out this Wednesday, seen growing 0.2% MoM

The pair heads into the Asian opening barely trading above the mentioned low, and short-term bearish according to the 4 hours chart, although holding above the critical 0.7250 level, perceived as a line in the sand. In the mentioned time-frame technical indicators remain at their daily lows near oversold readings, while the pair is ending the day below the 100 SMA and further below a mild-bearish 20 SMA. A quick recovery above the 0.7300 level once the market resumes normal activity, will indicate bulls are still dominating the pair.

Support levels: 0.7250 0.7210 0.7175

Resistance levels: 0.7300 0.7340 0.7380  

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

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