Morning briefing: GBP/USD rally hinges on $1.3400 breakout

The Dollar Index can decline towards 97.50-97.00 in the near term. EURUSD & EURINR can soon test 1.18 & 107 respectively. EURJPY has slipped below 182 and if the fall continues, a test to 180 can happen initially. USDJPY is trading lower within its 158-154 range. USDCNY has slipped below 7.045 and failing to see an immediate rebound can drag it further to 7.025 or even 7.00. AUDUSD is stuck within 0.67-0.66 region. GBPUSD need to see a break past 1.34 to head towards 1.35. USDINR is currently trading near 90.80 level. Watch price action closely around current level to see whether it holds below 90.80 or extends the rise to 91.00-91.25. US NFP, US Unemployment, US Avg hrly earnings & US Retail sales are some of the important data releases scheduled for today.

The US Treasury yields remain higher but stable. The yields have to break their immediate resistance in order to go further higher and avoid falling back again. The German yields sustain higher. View remains bullish. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate around its resistance. We will have to wait and see if it is getting a decisive rise above the resistance or falling back into its previous range.

The Dow is likely to trade within 49000-48000 region while the DAX needs to hold above 24200 to rise towards 24500. Nifty is headed towards 26200-26500 while above 25800. Nikkei has broken below 50000 and could now be headed towards 49000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.

Brent and WTI remain weak and can extend their decline if $60 and $56 break. Gold needs a sustained break above $4400 to target $4450–$4500. Silver has rebounded from $61 and can rise towards $65–$66. Copper remains vulnerable below $5.60 with downside risk towards $5.00. Natural gas continues to stay under pressure and can slip further towards $3.90–$3.80 in the near term.