WTI: Bears in control below the 200-W EMA at 61.8% Fibo


  • WTI is on the defensive, travelling between the day's range of $51.60 and $52.72.
  • The 200 weekly EMA which gave way while geopolitics drives price. 

WTI was trading at $51.68, - 0.80%, and travelling between the day's range of $51.60 and $52.72, in the main consolidating the downtrend from the $63.80s which made a double bottom on the 5th and 12th June. The price was on the backfoot while demand dwindles away on geopolitical noise from US-China relations and US-Iran/Middle East relations.

The latest developments in the Middle East is the news that has circulated around Iran's announcement that the nations will break the uranium stockpile limit in 10 days. This is an escalation of poor relations that were already on tenterhooks and a development that comes in the wake of suspected attacks on oil tankers last week in the region.

The announcement indicated Iran’s determination to break from the landmark 2015 accord, which has steadily unravelled since the Trump administration pulled America out of the deal last year and re-imposed tough economic sanctions on Iran, sending its economy into freefall. Last month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned that Iran will enrich its uranium stockpile closer to weapons-grade levels in 60 days if world powers fail to negotiate new terms for the nuclear deal of which the U.S. pulled away from.

"On the geopolitical front the market has decisively taken a "show me the lost barrels" attitude with respect to tensions in the Gulf, following the attack on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. While Pompeo's remarks were immediately hawkish, a "diplomatic" tone was emphasized which eased fears of an imminent retaliation. While no barrels have been lost of yet, we think that risks to further disruptions are rising, and higher insurance costs should warrant a risk premium associated with crude oil prices," analysts at TD Securities explained. Then, on the flipside, we had the comments from Saudi Energy Minister Falih over the weekend. The comments hinted that the OPEC meeting will be pushed back into the first week of July, although leaving expectations of an extension of the current agreement on the table. 

WTI levels

The price remains below the 200 weekly EMA, balancing on a 61.8% Fibo, which gave way in recent prior sessions and leaves the 14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44 exposed. On the up-side, a clear break of the 53 handle opens 54.50 and then 55.20 meeting the 20-D EMA.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD accelerates decline and nears 1.1200

The US Nonfarm Payroll report’s effects are long gone. The greenback gets attention as stocks eased sharply from intraday highs, still holding in the green, yet undermined by record coronavirus cases in the US.

EUR/USD News

AUD/USD hovering around 0.6920 after a dull day

AUD/USD pair seesawed between gains and losses, settling for a second consecutive day at around 0.6920. Australian PMIs and Chinese services output coming up next.

AUD/USD News

Gold: Bears seeking justice below key support

XAU/USD has been a mixed bag this week and for the start of the month, trapping bears ina recent stop hunt from the $1,757.66 level where it met a high of $1,779.69 on the last session before the US long weekend. 

Gold News

Crypto collapse with Bitcoin falling below $9,000 and Ethereum getting close to $220

Most cryptocurrencies are experiencing a significant sell-off after Bitcoin fell below $9,000. BNB/USD has suffered the most with a 4% drop towards $15 and needs to hold $14.8 support. 

Read more

Oil: $40 per barrel has been broken again but there is a lack of conviction at these current levels

WTI has continued to move higher on Thursday but the price action seems pretty lacklustre despite volatility elsewhere. There have been some decent news stories in the past few sessions as it was confirmed OPEC output reached a two-decade low after over compliance from Saudi Arabia. 

Oil News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures