When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?


US monthly jobs report overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data. The popularly known NFP report is scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT and is expected to show that the economy added 400K new jobs in December, up from the previous month's dismal reading of 210K. The unemployment rate is expected to edge lower to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. Given Wednesday's stellar US ADP report on private-sector employment, market participants are bracing for a positive surprise from the official figures.

As Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, explains: “The availability of employment, the extremely low level of layoffs, the desire of many workers to improve their wages to cope with soaring inflation, and the vibrant US expansion, should give Nonfarm Payrolls a good December. Given the strength of the attendant indicators and the ADP result, risk is weighted to a substantially better number than forecast.”

How could the data affect EUR/USD?

Heading into the key release, a generally positive risk tone, along with softer US Treasury bond yields kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive and acted as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. That said, the divergence in monetary policy stance between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) kept a lid on any meaningful gains for the major. A stronger NFP print would reaffirm hawkish Fed expectations and provide a fresh lift for the greenback. Conversely, any disappointment is more likely to be offset by growing acceptance for an eventual Fed liftoff in March. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside and any attempted recovery move could still be seen as a selling opportunity.

Meanwhile, Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, offered a brief technical outlook for the major: “EUR/USD's near-term technical picture shows that the pair is struggling to find direction with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator moving sideways near 50 on the four-hour chart. Moreover, the pair is currently fluctuating in a tight range in between the 100-period and 200-period SMA's on the same chart, reflecting its indecisiveness.”

Eren also outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “In case US T-bond yields start to push higher after NFP data, the first target on the downside aligns at 1.1270 (static level) ahead of 1.1240 (static level) and 1.1200 (psychological level). Resistances are located at 1.1320 (50-period SMA), 1.1340 (static level) and 1.1360 (static level, post-ECB high).”

Key Notes

  •  Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: A strengthening labor market backs a tighter monetary policy

  •  US Nonfarm Payrolls December Preview: The labor market seconds Fed policy

  •  EUR/USD Forecast: Sellers move to sidelines while waiting for NFP's impact on rate hike bets

About the US monthly jobs report

The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Euro recovers ground but not re-attracting bulls yet Premium

EUR/USD: Euro recovers ground but not re-attracting bulls yet

The EUR/USD rose on Monday toward the 1.0800 area, recovering some of Friday’s slide, supported by an improvement in market sentiment, amid easing concerns on the banking sector.


GBP/USD closes in on 1.2300 as mood improves

GBP/USD closes in on 1.2300 as mood improves

GBP/USD has preserved its bullish momentum and advanced to the 1.2300 area in the second half of the day on Monday. The risk positive market atmosphere makes it difficult for the US Dollar to stay resilient against its rivals and fuels the pair's daily rally. Eyes on BOE Governor Bailey's speech.


Gold: XAU/USD pared losses and consolidates around $1,950.00 Premium

Gold: XAU/USD pared losses and consolidates around $1,950.00

Spot gold trades in the $1,950 price zone, sharply down on Monday as investors move away from safe-haven assets. The sentiment is positive at the start of the week amid easing concerns related to a global banking crisis.

Gold News

MicroStrategy buys $150 million worth of Bitcoin as institutional interest soars to eight-month high

MicroStrategy buys $150 million worth of Bitcoin as institutional interest soars to eight-month high

Bitcoin has been noting increasing institutional interest for the last few days as whale movement on the network grew. 

Read more

US Consumer Confidence Preview: No good news for Americans Premium

US Consumer Confidence Preview: No good news for Americans

The United States will publish the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, and market players anticipate it has contracted to 101 from 102.9 in February. 

Read more