When is the US ADP jobs report and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

US ADP jobs report overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment, scheduled at 13:15 GMT. Consensus estimates suggest that the US private-sector employers added 388K jobs in February as against the loss of 301K jobs in the previous month. The report might influence expectations from the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and help predict how things could move on Friday.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key release, a goodish recovery in the risk sentiment forced the safe-have US dollar to trim a part of its early gains to the highest level since June 2020. Apart from this, stronger than expected Eurozone CPI print extended some support to the shared currency and assisted the EUR/USD pair to gain some positive traction on Wednesday. That said, the optimistic move in the markets runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly amid worries about the worsening situation in Ukraine. This should continue to act as a tailwind for the buck and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the major, suggesting that the immediate reaction to the US ADP report is more likely to be short-lived.

Meanwhile, Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, outlined important technical levels to trade the pair: “EUR/USD seems to have met interim support at 1.1080 and the pair could face renewed bearish pressure if buyers fail to defend this level. On the downside, 1.1000 (psychological level) could be seen as the next support.”

“In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart is still below 30, suggesting that the pair could push lower before turning technically oversold. Resistances are located at 1.1150 (static level), 1.1180 (20-period SMA) and 1.1220 (static level),” Eren added further.

Key Notes

• US ADP February Preview: Private job creation returns

• EUR/USD Forecast: Euro bears eye 1.1000 as Russian aggression continues

• EUR/USD to drop towards 1.10 unless heartening news of a ceasefire in Ukraine – ING

About the US ADP jobs report

The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold challenges its 200-day SMA near $4,530

Gold’s decline gathers fresh steam, hitting weekly lows while disputing its critical 200-day SMA near $4,530 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s increasing weakness comes in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the US Dollar and the widespread rebound in US Treasury yields, as investors continue to reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rally loses steam despite steady ETF inflows

Bitcoin is back below $80,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after a second attempt at breaking resistance between $81,000 and $82,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Ripple mirror Bitcoin’s cooling trend, with ETH sliding to $2,500 and XRP falling toward $1.40 support.

Week ahead – RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP

Dollar rebounds ahead of ISM PMI and NFP data. RBNZ is expected to raise rates; focus to fall on forward guidance. BoC is set to remain on hold; will it raise rates in 2027?

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.